Rekan-rekan, ini ada sedikit cerita yg mungkin bisa jadi pertimbangan
buat yg hobby 'wi-fi'... sekalian di ada lampirkan dua website ... yang
satu positif yaitu dari
Directory Wi-fizone.org diseluruh dunia, bisa lihat hotspot yang sudah
terdaftar diIndonesia misalnya..
coba di klik website dibawah ini kalau mau mencari hotspot diIndonesia
:
http://www.wi-fizone.org/zoneLocator.asp?TID=7
caranya masukkan country dengan "Indonesia" lalu klick search...
atau
masukkan misalnya Millenia nanti juga ketemu hasilnya..
Coba deh ditest...
Ada cerita negatif alias prediksi bahwa hotspot akan crash...jadi hati
hati bagi yang mau investasi peralatan hotspot...jangan bikin buble dan
bikin hotspot dimana mana secara sporadis asal asalan ngikutin trend
seperti
bikin warnet....tanpa bisnis plan, sekedar wah saja...:-)
-------------------------
Analysts predict wireless hot-spot crash By Graeme Wearden
Special to CNET News.com June 19, 2003, 12:00 PM PT
www. news.com.com/2100-1039-1019111.html
Most of the money that is being spent creating public wireless "hot
spots"
is being wasted, according to research published on Thursday.
Analyst group Forrester believes that, in the future, there won't be
enough people using Wi-Fi devices to support the operators that are
currently introducing wireless local area networks (WLANs) and hot
spots,
which are places where wireless Web access is available to the public
for a
fee or for free.
"With all the hype today about the rollout of WLAN public hot spots,
it's
as if the dot-com boom and bust never happened," said Lars Godell, a
Forrester senior analyst.
"We believe that much of the money being poured into public WLAN today
to
enable access--from places as diverse as bars, marinas, hotels and
airports,
as well as train, bus and metro stations--is being wasted," he said.
According to Forrester, there will be just 53 million Wi-Fi-enabled
laptops and personal digital assistants (PDAs) in use in Europe by 2008.
In
addition, only 7.7 million people who use them will be prepared to pay
to
use Wi-Fi wireless hot spots. Wi-Fi networks create a 300-foot zone
where
laptops can wirelessly connect to the Web or to a corporate computer
network.
"Simply, basic constraints on the number of devices in use, and users'
willingness to pay a significant amount for Internet access on the go,
will
limit public WLAN users to numbers well short of planned networks'
carrying
capacity," Godell predicted. "Additionally, the sky-high costs of
providing
Internet backhaul from hot spots will kill many hot-spot business
cases."
There is growing concern within the Wi-Fi industry that operators are
not
offering the kind of pricing models that will attract users. There are
also
rumors that user take-up is below expectations.
Forrester predicts that Bluetooth, a rival short-range wireless
technology, will be much more widespread than Wi-Fi, and expects that
there
will be 286 million Bluetooth-enabled devices in Europe by
2008.
Theo Platt, director of U.K. hot spot provider Broadscape, supports
Forrester's view that the business case for running a subscription Wi-Fi
network is weak, but doesn't think that Bluetooth hot spots
are the answer.
Platt told ZDNet UK that Bluetooth made up less than 5 percent of
usage of
Broadscape's hot spots, and pointed out that it works within a much
smaller
range than Wi-Fi.
"Wi-Fi is the superior technology over Bluetooth for public access,"
he
said. "The range is greater--Bluetooth's is 10 meters, compared (with)
100
meters for Wi-Fi. The bandwidth is greater, and more
users can use one access point at once...with Bluetooth, you are
limited
to seven," Platt explained.
Platt added that he agrees that Bluetooth devices will outnumber Wi-Fi
devices in the future, but insisted that Wi-Fi is the "accepted and most
practical method for public access."
Report: Hot spots to spark little profit
By Richard Shim
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
May 27, 2003, 3:54 PM PT
The pace of installation of hot spots, or public
places with wireless access, will continue to grow, but
lower-than-expected usage levels will force telecommunications companies
to
re-evaluate their business models, according to a report released Monday
by
research
firm Forward Concepts. The report estimated that the number of hot
spots
in the United States will reach about 46,000 in 2003 and hold steady
the
year after that.
But growth will pick up again in 2005, and by 2007 there will be
530,000
hot spots in the United States, it predicted. Four years from now, the
hot-spot total is expected to reach almost 800,000 in Europe and from
1 to
4 million in Asia. Revenue from wireless hot-spot service in the United
States is projected to reach $8 billion, or about $15,000 per hot
spot, in
2007, which may force telecommunications companies to rethink their
plans.
----------------
Wi-Fi vs 3G: Friends or foes?
Is WLAN going to deliver the death blow to 3G, or save its neck?
Global
technology editor John C. Tanner goes on the trail of the biggest
debate
in wireless and discovers that Wi-Fi is not as easy as it looks
It's been almost two years now since the first reports began to
surface
on the emergence of the hot new trend of mobile data taking the
telecoms
industry by storm - wireless LAN, a.k.a. 802.11b, a.k.a. Wi-Fi, the
IEEE
technology that exploited the unlicensed 2.4 GHz ISM band to make
wireless Ethernet LANs a reality in the home and the office.
Or, as it turned out, university campuses and the local caf?. Hot
spots
began popping up all over the place, many of them initially ad hoc
networks set up by savvy caf? owners and franchises like Starbucks.
By
the time Wi-Fi hot spots turned up in airport lounges, the word was
spreading, Wi-Fi cards were selling and the Wireless Ethernet
Compatibility Alliance (now the Wi-Fi Alliance) had certified
hundreds
of PC cards and access points. Telcos such as PCCW, SingTel, KT and
Telstra, as well as mobile operators like Maxis, NTT DoCoMo, China
Mobile and China Unicom were deploying hot spots in their respective
service areas.
Inevitably, the comparisons to 3G began, and went something like
this:
Forget W-CDMA's clunky 120 kbps (out of a theoretical 384-k) on a
screen
the size of a Mini-Disc! For the same spotty coverage and battery
life,
you could be sitting somewhere drinking espresso and cruising the
Web at
a cool 11 Mbps (actually, it's more like 2 or 4 Mbps, depending on
what
the access point and the server you're trying to connect to is using
for
backhaul, and it gets lower after that as more users log on to the
same
access point, but hey, it's as good as that corporate LAN or
residential
DSL/cable modem). With all that and multimedia on a decent-sized
screen,
who needs 3G?
That was then, and many operators reputedly lost sleep over it. "One
CTO
told me that he would wake up every morning and wish that it were
gone,"
recalls Kimmo Kaitala, GM of Nokia Networks' Operator Wireless LAN
division. "Since then, though, it's been put into proportion."
Indeed - for the past 18 months, vendors like Nokia, Motorola,
Ericsson,
Alcatel, Nortel Networks and other 3G infrastructure vendors have
promoted WLAN technology not as a threat, but an opportunity - a
complementary addition to a carrier's service portfolio at a time
when
new services is exactly what carriers are now looking for. And now
it
seems that cellcos and telcos alike are finally getting the message,
says Sarah Kim, wireless/mobile analyst at Yankee Group.
"The view of Wi-Fi as a threat to 3G has evolved towards peaceful
co-existence," Kim says. "The vast majority of the industry views
[Wi-Fi] as a complementary technology."
It's even the official position of the GSM Association, says GSMA
spokesperson Mark Smith. "Individual operators have their own plans
on
how to utilize these technologies, and they range from a focus only
on
3G, to providing a fully seamless data service that exploits both
technologies."
It helps, of course, that WLAN's threat is diminished somewhat by
the
fact that accessing data via a laptop or via a cell phone doesn't
make
them mutually exclusive options for users. It also helps that the
business case for both is still more theoretical than practical. It
helps even further that a public WLAN service is not as easy - or as
cost-effective - to deploy as it looks.
The true cost of Wi-Fi
For all the hype about Wi-Fi's obvious advantages - namely cheap
access
points and access speeds way up into the 54-megabit range as 802.11a
and
11g products start hitting shelves this year - it comes prepackaged
with
numerous disadvantages as well as far as public access services go.
For
a start, says Jean-Luc Jezouin, vice president of mobility solutions
for
Nortel Networks, public WLANs aren't quite as cheap to deploy as
they
appear.
"The system cost is expensive, as is the backhaul link, and if you
deploy enough of them the cost perhaps becomes almost comparable
with
deploying 3G," he says.
Kaitala of Nokia Networks agrees. "Access points are small and
inexpensive, but they add up. If you have to go out and do any kind
of
maintenance on them, it gets costly. Doing truck rolls on all those
access points is expensive, and it gets more expensive every time
you
add a new hot spot."
There are other hidden costs of WLAN deployments, points out John
Lipp,
business development director of Mobile Networks at Alcatel Asia
Pacific. "Deployment costs for things like rooftop access, property
rights and even electric power add up fast," he says.
That said, the opex costs of public WLANs don't have to necessarily
be a
barrier, says Janice Hulse, Asia-Pacific director of service
provider
mobility at Cisco Systems, who says that this is where careful
systems
integration comes into play. "System integration is partly about how
you
manage geographically diverse hot spots, but it's also about how to
seamlessly integrate these technologies into the network itself -
the
applications, the hardware, and how it all comes together," she
says.
Apples and oranges
Even for those who argue that WLAN is still cheaper than 3G, WLAN's
limitations aren't limited to cost management, says Eric Jao,
regional
marketing manager of Intel Communication Group
"802.11 is not designed for fast-moving users riding in cars, trains
or
even walking down the street," Jao says. "It's more suitable for
single-spot coverage. For things like the ability to roam from one
hot
spot to another, or moving fast from one point to another, 2.5G and
3G
are better suited."
That hasn't prevented Wi-Fi enthusiasts from pointing out that this
is a
temporary condition - witness the current drive towards roaming,
from
clearinghouse providers like GRIC and iPass to regional initiatives
like
the Wireless Broadband Alliance formed two months ago. Witness also
gap-filling technologies like 802.16a point-to-multi-point routers
that
can theoretically create a wireless mesh network over a major city.
Then
there's the growing hype about voice-over-WLAN, which is already
being
trialed by Sharp in Japan. Such technological advancements, as well
as
cutting-edge tech like wearable computers, nanotech and quantum
computing, are often cited in declaring WLAN as the eventual
successor
over cellular mobile as we know it.
Perhaps, says Lipp of Alcatel, but it's still a mighty tall order.
"If
it could all deliver handovers and high speeds and coverage at the
same
level or better than mobile, it could threaten 3G. But economically,
it
would deteriorate soon after you tried to deploy it."
Lipp cites KT Corp's recently announced plan to spend $100 million
to
expand their hot spots from 8,500 to 16,000. "If you break down that
$100 million by hot spot, that works out to be a lot cheaper per
site
than 3G," he says. "But at the same time, if you look at all the
operators that have done rollouts on that scale, they've all lost
money."
In any case, he says, all the hype over Wi-Fi hot spots is still
essentially theory. "There's not enough information about what they
still need and what they can actually do."
But surely the same could be said for W-CDMA?
"Yes, but the difference is that a lot of the functionality of
W-CDMA is
already designed into the product. That's not the case with WLAN in
terms of offering it as a service."
Ian Johnston, OSS marketing segment manager for the Asia
Communications
Solutions Group at Agilent Technologies, offers a similar view. "3G
is
coming from a very planned, organized base, so that when it does go
to
market, you can do certain things straight away, such as roaming,
billing, and customer care."
Wi-Fi, by contrast, was developed from the Internet path. "It lacks
a
formal infrastructure," he says.
Nortel's Jezouin puts it more candidly: "It's essentially a quick
and
stupid pipe for bits."
All about the backend
It's this particular aspect of public WLAN - that is, the backend -
that
has to change if service providers are going to realize any value
out of
it.
Hulse of Cisco Systems, for example, says that the main challenge
for
Cisco's customers is backend functionality such as SIM
authentication,
roaming agreements, and billing.
Jezouin of Nortel notes that solutions to address this are already
on
the market in the form of edge gear designed to manage disparate
access
services.
That said, however, Intel's Jao adds that much of the challenge is
more
human than technological. "It's really a matter of convincing
different
service providers to share customer data with each other, but their
concern is, 'why should I share my customer information and my
billing
information'?"
The twist, Jao observes, is that the mobile industry went through
the
same thing in the early days of GSM. "They didn't trust one another
then, either. So the WLAN operators are at the same stage now that
mobile operators once were."
It may seem odd that the proven revenue benefits of cell phone
roaming
don't outweigh the instinctive protectionist concerns over
proprietary
customer data, but then few operators feel comfortable when the
competition is saying, "You show me your data first." Consequently,
some
regulators have been stepping in as third-party arbitrators to help
jumpstart the process.
"In Singapore, the IDA is leading a project to establish a switching
center between ISPs to address this," Jao offers as an example. "In
Taiwan, the government is setting up something similar. So is China.
They see the need to get ISPs together in the same room and work
this
out."
Jao adds that upcoming standards like 802.11i, the proposed IEEE
standard for authentication on WLAN systems, can help.
Similar business models
Still, this should not be taken as an argument against deploying hot
spot services at all.
"It's quite interesting then that the pros and cons of wireless LANs
are
almost perfectly complementary to those of 3G," says Nortel's
Jezouin.
"So they will both be used, but the business aspects may be
questioned,
especially the business models."
Indeed, if there's one thing that 3G and WLAN have in common, it's a
murky business case.
Indeed, the business case for hot spot is as unclear as that for 3G.
Says Johnston of Agilent, "For a coffee shop, it might be to
increase
walk-in business and see if they can get more bums on seats, but how
do
you determine what their cut is? The caf? can say, well, I'm the
source
of all the new traffic, so I should get 50%, but the operator says,
yeah
but I'm providing the hardware and the backhaul and the billing, so
I
should get 90%."
There's also the question of just how much revenue there would be to
split. No major hot spot service provider is turning a profit from
it,
and the common wisdom of broadband service in general is that the
access
pipe business model only goes so far.
"The danger of public wireless LANs is that they have to make money,
and
you can't really do that by offering all-you-can-eat access," says
Lloyd
Carney, executive vice president of Juniper Networks. "You need to
be
able to offer different classes of services, to include different
classes of bandwidth, and you have to do it in a way that can scale,
especially since Wi-Fi enabled PDAs aren't that far away from the
market."
Juniper's MINT concept aims to enable just that - partly via its
edge
router products that aggregate and manage traffic at wire speed from
various access technologies, but also by getting service providers
to
think in terms of services rather than technology.
"You really have to start with the service and how to make money
rather
than the technology," says Carney.
Bringing it together
John Edwards, Asia-Pacific VP and GM of Motorola Professional
Services,
insists carriers need to think in terms of the eventual convergence
of
services.
"Right now, WLAN is sitting there more as a bolt-on rather than
being
part of a comprehensive roadmap, which is how we think it should
be,"
Edwards says. "We're telling carriers that they should be addressing
things from the user level."
Part of that equation, says Hulse of Cisco, is single-account
billing.
"The most important thing is that whatever service I use, I'm using
one
number, and I'm billed as a single user - that's the challenge that
telcos are facing in offering these services."
Nortel is addressing the convergence equation from the core, which
ideally should be a seamless packet core that's completely agnostic
to
access technologies. "3G technologies will blur over time," says
Jezouin. "We're seeing it now with CDMA vs UMTS. It is not obvious,
of
course, but it's happening at the core, and it's happening at the
terminal level too. And it will happen as we see new technologies
come
along, such as EV-DO and EV-DV, and 802.16 - all of them will nicely
converge."
Part of that convergence vision has, in the last year, been the
quest to
enable handoff between Wi-Fi and cellular systems, which is more of
a
backend issue (i.e. authentication) than a terminal issue, but
despite
work being done in that direction, Kaitala of Nokia (itself a major
proponent of Wi-Fi/cellular handoff) downplays its importance.
Educating the users
"That's turning out not to be as important as people initially
thought,"
he says. "Users see them as different services. There probably is
some
level of demand for not wanting to lose your session if you have to
move
from one environment to the other, but it's not a determining factor
when you select a vendor."
However the convergence roadmap for 3G and WLAN plays out, vendors
are
going out of their way to assure mobile providers with 3G plans that
WLAN is part of the solution, not part of the problem.
"The more people that get used to the idea that they don't have to
plug
in to get access to data, the better for all mobile data systems,"
says
Alcatel's John Lipp.
That said, Nortel's Jezouin cautions operators not to let enthusiasm
for
that synergy lead to marketing efforts that confuse one service with
the
other.
"WLAN is ready, nomadic, with high throughput. 3G is ready, always
on,
and can be used almost anywhere. It doesn't have to be high
bandwidth
necessarily," he says. "It's the difference between mobile access
and
nomadic access. Operators have to be careful to make the
distinction,
however, otherwise they could damage the whole wireless data area."
About the Author
John C. Tanner
Global Technology Editor
OK, mudah-mudahan bermanfaat ...
Regards,
randy
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mohon yg OOT dibalas via Japri aja... tnx.
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