[Global Change: 2312] Re: Cost/benefit of human extinction

Phil Hays wrote:
> On Dec 28, 9:07 am, Tom Adams <tadams...@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>> The value of a human life is around 10 million these days.
>>
>> Based on that,  I figure that we can't justify spending 500 billion to
>> avoid extinction in 591 years.  Sometime around July 4th, 2598 to be
>> exact.
> 
> I'm greatly reminded of a calculation Mark Twain published on the
> length of the Mississippi river. Any sum compounded at a any positive
> rate of return will eventually exceed any fixed value. So?
> 
> It is not worth spending US$0.01 to prevent extinction in year X. Year
> X will depend on the rate of return and the stated value of human
> species. at US$6*10^16

The basic point that all of these calculations (including paying for 
mitigation of GHG emissions) tend to omit is that the choice is not 
between paying now, and extinction, but between paying now, and 
revisiting the question tomorrow, when another decision to pay or not 
can be made.

James