Political earthquake in France!

FYI: I just received this one. Armand

----------------- forwarded message -------------

First round of Presidential elections held on Sunday, April 21, 
shows: (estimates based on polls, not final results)

Record abstentionism for a Presidential first round: over 28% did not 
vote.

Partial collapse of the Gaullist right (Chirac): less than 20% - 
apparently they lost about 14% of the vote in the last two weeks. Few 
of those deserting the Gaullist went to the neo-fascist of the 
National Front (Le Pen) but most of them abstained.

Collapse of the now bourgeois Socialist Party - they got less than 
16%. The extreme left was only able to capture few percentage points 
of Socialist voters, a big chunk preferred to abstain.

Collapse of the reformist Communist Party: less than 4%.  Most of 
their voters shifted their support for Trotskyist candidates 
(especially Laguiller)

Laguiller (Trotskyist), Lutte Ouvriere: 7% - loss 4 percentage points 
in the last two weeks, under a barrage of negative media and the 
dynamic campaign of the LCR that undercut them somewhat. Laguiller 
said: "I will not vote for Chirac in the second round" and "Jospin 
defeat is entirely his responsibility."

Besancenot (Trotskyist), Ligue Communiste Revolutionarie, LCR, USFI: 
4% - undercutting Laguiller in the last two weeks.  He called "for a 
front of resistance to fascism" in view of the projected results.

Gluckstein (Trotskyist), Lambertists: collapsed at 0.5% (the most 
reformist of the three Trotskyist candidates)

Some Gaullist voters went for Le Pen (Neo-fascist)and put him on the 
top of the fascist vote (last presidential election they got 15.3%):  
They are now  at 17% and potentially could go to the second round.  
This will destabilize the entire political situation in France. 
Apparently, they capitalized on the crisis of the right wing Gaullist.

Observers expect mass demonstrations against fascism from now to the 
second round if Le Pen is confirmed as one of the two candidates 
disputing the Presidency with Chirac.

The estimates of the results also clearly show that a united 
electoral front of the existent left (Trotskyists and CP) could have 
competed for the second position with great possibilities 
(fragmented, they got over 14% of the vote.)

Of course, as always, the Communist and Socialist parties will blame 
their defeat and the advance of Le Pen in the first round to the 
extreme left, instead of their policies of administering neo-liberal 
and imperial policies on behalf of the French ruling class.

c.
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