madagascar crisis

this is a report sent to me by an old friend who is resident in 
madagascar, aka the malagasy republic. apologies for the length, but 
i forward it as a corrective to the minimal coverage i've been able 
to find in the english language press. i recommend it to list members 
and, unsurprisingly, there are the usual reminders of the hypocrisy 
and perfidy of u.s. foreign policy in the global south.

dennis o'neil


A Quick Introduction of the Authors
This document was produced by a Member of Avana, an International 
Association whose objective is to promote respect for the democratic 
choice of the people of Madagascar and the furtherance of Madagascar 
development as a free, democratic and independent country and a full 
participant in the international commercial and diplomatic community. 
(See footnote at the end of this document for further information)



The Umbrella Revolution:
A First Hand, Eye Witness Account of the Extraordinary Grassroots 
Democratic Movement in Madagascar


They call it the "Umbrella Revolution": an appropriate term for the 
grassroots democratic movement aiming to replace the government of 
Didier Ratsiraka, the dictator who has ruled Madagascar for more than 
25 years, by that of the newly elected President Marc Ravalomanana. 
Every day hundreds of thousands of ordinary citizens, men, women, 
children, civil servants, business leaders and employees, armed 
forces in civilian dress, students, the jobless, the middle class, 
the penniless, even some of the wealthy, Malagasy citizens of all 
ethnic groups, members of the foreign resident community of all 
nationalities, the young and the old have sat in the central square, 
participated in protest parades, manned barricades in their 
neighborhoods and around key installations (the central bank, the new 
President's residence, radio and television stations, military 
installations, churches and schools), fed the protesters, and helped 
install the newly appointed government Ministers in their offices. 
All day and all night for the past two months they have sat, stood 
and walked under the protection of their umbrellas, through the 
driving rain of the tropical wet season and the broiling sun of 
tropical noon. This is a largely peaceful democratic movement, 
motivated by the same deep-seated desire for freedom and democracy as 
the French and American revolutions, guided by the examples of Martin 
Luther King Jr., Mahatma Gandhi and Nelson Mandela, shaped by 
Malagasy respect for non-violence and national unity, and by the 
profoundly democratic Malagasy tradition of "Kabary", public decision 
making in the central square through dialogue, debate and the 
manifestation of public support for the most convincing argument. 
That is what has been happening in the central square, the "13 May 
Square", of the Capital City of Antananarivo, and, before the 
imposition of a State of Emergency and Martial Law by their Ratsiraka 
loyalists governors, in the public squares of the provincial capitals 
and other small cities and towns throughout this island nation.

A lot has appeared in the international press during the last couple 
of months concerning the political crisis in Madagascar.  Much of it 
is inaccurate or incomplete, either due to the incomprehension of 
journalists and international "negotiators" who are unable to form an 
accurate picture of events during their brief visits here or through 
the willful misinformation dispensed by representatives of foreign 
governments and by Ratsiraka loyalists, many of whom have benefited 
mightily and personally from the corruption of the Ratsiraka regime.

We are appalled that the international community should judge the 
situation on the basis of this inaccurate reporting and analysis of 
events. We would like to set the record straight. Or at the very 
least provide a different perspective.  Our observations and 
experiences lead us to believe that the peaceful, but iron hard 
resistance that the people of Madagascar have mounted against the 
attempts to nullify their clearly  and democratically expressed 
desire for a change is unique.  It is possibly difficult to 
understand for an international community more accustomed to violent 
transitions from dictatorship to democracy, especially in Africa.  We 
also believe that the persistent and non-violent response of the 
majority of Malagasy people in the face of repeated provocation, is 
one that should serve as an example of what a determined people can 
achieve through peaceful means and deserves the respect and support 
of all governments, organizations and people truly committed to 
democracy.

Why a "Run-off" Election Will Not Work
It should come as no surprise to anyone who fully understands the 
situation in Madagascar that the people and their leader, Marc 
Ravalomanana are very resistant to the idea of a "revote" (the 
principle strategy for "resolving the crisis" suggested by 
international negotiators), whether this be a so-called "second 
round" of elections to confirm Ravalomanana's win, or "new elections" 
at some later date.  The Malagasy people consider that their vote has 
been stolen from them.  They turned out in record numbers for this 
presidential election (partly as a result of the work done over the 
last few years by USAID and other donors in the area of civic 
education!).  They observed their votes being ignored, destroyed and 
falsified.  They have observed the international community that had 
promoted to them the importance of democracy and democratic processes 
turn their backs on them.  They have no faith that future elections 
run by a Ratsiraka government and/or its local lackeys (who are still 
in place as representative at the community, district and provincial 
levels) will be any different.  It is unlikely that they would even 
participate in any such election, if it were forced on them, thereby 
practically assuring a Ratsiraka win (or if not him, then a "third 
candidate" from among his supporters).  Perhaps this is why such a 
process is favored by certain international powers as a "solution" to 
the "Madagascar crisis"?

The "alternate", "neutral" or "third" candidate  "solution" seems to 
be in preparation as another strategy to be promoted by some 
international diplomats (see more on this toward the end of this 
document).  This is a tempting idea, but a pernicious one.  Such an 
option would represent a true undermining of the popular vote and 
popular will.  Four other candidates participated in the national 
elections.  None gained more than 4% of the national vote.  Any other 
candidate would almost certainly have to be drawn from among 
Ratsiraka's old coterie of power and will thus represent nothing more 
than a continuation of the old system.  Few in Madagascar, except 
perhaps the most ignorant and isolated, will be fooled by this.  In a 
small, poor island nation such as this, the political and economic 
elite is an extremely small minority, well known by almost any 
educated person.

Who really won the Election?
We believe unequivocally that Marc Ravalomanana is the duly elected 
new President of Madagascar, not the "self-proclaimed" President that 
the international media would have you believe.  Even the Ratsiraka 
government's official vote count grants him 46% of the vote versus 
the outgoing President's 40%, despite universally recognized massive 
election fraud on the part of the outgoing government.  All other 
groups of independent observers agree that he received over 50% of 
the vote, with Ratsiraka receiving less than 40%.  If the vote counts 
is incomplete, thus obscuring the clarity of the election results, 
this is due exclusively to the manipulation, falsification and 
destruction of voting records by the Ratsiraka government.  More 
importantly, it was the people in the streets that insisted 
Ravalomanana be sworn in, when he himself suggested postponing the 
investiture.  Ravalomanana invited the other presidential contenders 
to address the people to ask for a postponement of the investiture. 
Three did so and were loudly booed off the platform.  Finally, 
Ravalomanana was sworn in by the Justices of the Constitutional High 
Court that Ratsiraka had removed just days prior to the December 16th 
election because they were not fervent enough supporters of his 
regime.  Nor is Ravalomanana the "self -proclaimed head of the 
military".  That function is one that is automatically attached to 
the presidency (as in the United States) and one he assumed after a 
large portion (estimated at 80%) of the armed forces declared 
themselves for his government.

The International Response: Failure to Assist a People in Danger
We are distressed by the reactions to date of the international 
diplomatic community.  Given what occurred in Yugoslavia, Rwanda, 
Burundi and Sierra Leone (among other recent cases) when the 
international community ignored the manipulation of traditional 
ethnic tensions for political ends until it was far too late, we 
cannot accept the total silence surrounding the increasingly clear 
and violent revival of outdated ethnic rivalries by Didier Ratsiraka 
in a last ditch attempt to hang onto power.  (He is, after all, a 
president who was one of the first to express his delight at the 
September 11 attacks in New York and Washington D. C.!). 
Furthermore, we cannot stand by silently as our diplomats publicly 
and internationally "condemn" or "object to" what they call "illegal" 
or "illegitimate" acts of what some among them refer to as "power 
mongering" on the part of Ravalomanana, when these verbal sanctions 
refer to peaceful responses to international intransigence and 
Ratsirakist threats.  Yet they say nothing at all about the blatantly 
illegal and often violent or violence provoking actions of the 
outgoing government.  And this at a time when international response 
to blatantly corrupt and undemocratic transitions in government in 
other countries (Zimbabwe, Zaire, Serbia, to name just a few) has 
been quite different
Let us put legalistic and numeristic arguments aside.  These can be 
twisted and turned in all directions and must ultimately be decided, 
not simply in the court of public opinion, but in the national court, 
when that institution has become an entity of men and women whose 
opinions cannot be bought and who represent a variety of political 
convictions, which is not now the case.  Let us look, instead at who 
these two men, Didier Ratsiraka and Marc Ravalomanana, are; what they 
represent for the people of Madagascar; and of what their support 
consists.

Who is Didier Ratsiraka?
A Little History
Ratsiraka took power in Madagascar in a political coup in 1975, after 
the murder of a popularly elected president, a murder in which 
Ratsiraka is widely implicated.  Until the fall of the Berlin Wall, 
he ruled as head of a client state of the Soviet Union, with strong 
ties to China and Cuba.  During this period, the economy of 
Madagascar fell into ruins, turning it eventually into the third 
poorest country in the world.  Corruption, mismanagement, suppression 
of political dissent, murder of political opponents, promotion of 
ethnic antagonisms, government control of the press, flight of the 
intelligencia and the better off members of society and similar 
hallmarks of dictatorship characterized this period.  Finally, in 
1991, after weeks of daily demonstrations by as many as 500,000 
protesters culminated in the deaths of 51 unarmed citizens at the 
hands of the presidential guards, Ratsiraka was forced to accept a 
transition government prior to national elections in 1993, elections 
which he roundly lost.  Unfortunately, the new president, Albert 
Zafy, was not up to the job of reshaping the country, was impeached 
and Ratsiraka won the next round of elections in 1996 by one half a 
percentage point.  His adversary was the recently impeached 
president.  Massive election fraud and poor voter turn out 
characterized those elections.

Years of Corruption and Mismanagement
For the next five years the scale of government corruption and 
mismanagement grew to such vast and widespread proportions that the 
country became known in the donor community as one of the most 
corrupt in Africa.  (Let us remember, though, that Madagascar, 
historically and culturally, derives more from Asia and the Indian 
Ocean than from its vast geographical neighbor: Malagasy do not 
generally think of themselves as Africans).  Those willing to 
demonstrate their loyalty to the Ratsiraka regime and facilitate the 
growth of his personal fortune, and that of his children, were 
rewarded with lucrative government posts, homes, cars, control of 
national resources (including donor resources) and other perks.  This 
patronage system was replicated at all levels of the hierarchy, even 
down to directors of schools and heads of hospitals.  Those not 
willing to participate or keep quiet were transferred to the local 
equivalent of Siberia or simply lost their jobs.   This atmosphere of 
generalized corruption also contributed, apparently, to Madagascar 
serving as a transit point for Al Qaada operatives before and after 
the bombing of the American Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and, 
reportedly, a continued safe haven for some known terrorists from 
that organization.  (Despite a later change of heart, Ratsiraka's 
early reaction to the September 11 bombings was one of glee and the 
accusation that the United States and Israel had themselves 
orchestrated the event.)

Bids for government controlled contracts (including contracts for 
donor financed activities) were rigged so that those willing to 
provide the largest personal benefits to government decision-makers 
were awarded the contract.  Kickbacks for these contracts and for 
business licenses and other permits are rumored to have gone as high 
as 40% of the total contract amount.  The personal experiences of 
members of our group confirm these allegations.  The judiciary 
increasingly ruled in favor of the highest bidder, allowing the 
Ratsiraka family and that of their most loyal followers to 
appropriate the property of others with impunity.  One such affair 
involving Ratsiraka's daughter, Sophia, contributed to the final 
transformation of traditional Malagasy reserve and respect for 
authority into the iron hard determination of the current protesters 
to assure that their desire for change as expressed in their vote 
during the elections is acknowledged and legitimized.

Rubies and Emeralds
The discovery of large reserves of precious rubies, emeralds and 
sapphires some years ago led, not only to the destruction of national 
parks, but also to a vast illegal traffic in gemstones, widely 
rumored to have included the highest levels of the government of 
France, Madagascar's colonial partner, and, possibly, even some 
members of the donor community.  During a recent take-over by 
pro-Ravalomanana protesters of the Ministry of Rural and Urban 
Development, a 50-kilogram bag of emeralds and sapphires was 
discovered in the Minister's office along with boxes of counterfeit 
bills.

Control of National Media
While an officially stated policy in favor of freedom of the press 
allowed a rapid proliferation of small local private radio stations 
throughout the island, the national radio and television chains were 
still tightly controlled by the government.  Privatization led to the 
takeover of one large radio station by a French businessman loyal to 
the Ratsiraka government and his assisted purchase of an increasing 
number of local radio stations, expanding the government's de facto 
control of the media.  This has become increasing obvious during the 
current crisis as access to independent sources of news has been 
increasingly cut off in the provinces.  The major source of 
international news remains Radio France International (RFI) whose 
close ties with the French government (which supports Ratsiraka) and, 
locally, with highly placed pro-Ratsiraka individuals have assured a 
one sided perspective and apparent willful misreporting of events.

Manipulating Elections
Elections at all levels, from those for community representative and 
small town mayors to those of provincial governors, senators and 
congressmen (Deputies), as well as the recent presidential election, 
have been tightly controlled affairs, marked by intimidation of 
opposition leaders, including false arrests and physical abuse, and, 
it is rumored, disappearances, falsified voter lists, stuffed 
ballot-boxes, changes in vote counts, "lost" ballot boxes, and a host 
of other fraudulent practices designed to assure victory for 
pro-Ratsiraka or politically neutral candidates.  The result is a 
Chamber of Deputies (the approximate equivalent of the American 
Congress) and a Senate made up almost entirely of Ratsiraka 
supporters  (It should be noted that the Malagasy president directly 
appoints one third of the Senate and four of nine of the Justices of 
the National High Court- the HCC.), and a predominance of 
Ratsirakists at lower levels of government.  It is becoming clear 
that the much heralded move to decentralization with the 
establishment of "Autonomous Provinces", initially interpreted by 
donors as a move toward more democratic power sharing, was, in fact, 
a tactical maneuver to further concentrate power in the hands of 
Ratsiraka and his supporters.  No actual financial or decision-making 
authority was ever really transferred to the Provinces and 
manipulation of local elections assured that all Provincial Governors 
are Ratsiraka loyalists.  That this reality has come in very handy 
during the current electoral crisis is demonstrated by the 
independent decision of five of those governors to establish a "new 
national capital" in the port city of Toamasina, Ratsiraka's "home 
town".  These governors have also assured the suppression of pro 
Ravalomanana forces in the Provinces through the imposition of a 
State of Emergency, interdiction of demonstrations and instigation of 
terrorist acts against public figures known to favor Ravalomanana's 
presidential bid.

With the last minute replacements of all neutral and opposition 
members of the National High Court by Ratsiraka loyalists (their 
loyalty still further ensured by gifts in cash and kind), this 
stacking of public officialdom with those beholden to him has given 
Ratsiraka his most significant electoral coup to date: the creation 
of the cloud of confusion that has allowed the international 
diplomatic and donor community and the international press to 
question the legality and legitimacy of the Ravalomanana government. 
Make no mistake about it, it is this international refusal to 
recognize the Ravalomanana government that allows and encourages 
Ratsiraka to prolong his struggle to maintain power despite the 
strength of local public opinion against him.

Presidential Election Fraud
How did the Ratsiraka political machine frustrate the conduct of free 
and open elections during the presidential contest?  First, Ratsiraka 
refused international observers for the presidential elections.  Then 
he applied his usual practices to assure a victory for himself: 
attempts to close down Tiko, Ravalomanana's dairy company, arrests of 
Tiko employees on trumped up charges, threats to individuals or 
neighborhoods known to favor his opponent by interrupting their 
electricity and water, falsification of voter lists, imposition of 
complicated procedures making it extremely difficult for opposition 
supporters to obtain voter cards, refusal of access to national media 
to opposition candidates, grounding of the helicopters Ravalomanana 
had hired to verify election results in remote communities, stuffed 
ballot boxes, "lost" ballot boxes, payments made for votes, 
interdiction of  the announcement of local vote counts on the radio, 
failure to complete the vote count, manipulation of the 
(illegitimate) National High Court to announce election results 
obtained in part by annulling the vote from 344 localities due to 
"irregularities", refusal of the comparison of the voting records 
obtained by public watchdog organizations with those published by the 
government and the list goes on.  It is reported that the public 
voting records have since been destroyed, making any comparison of 
results impossible.

Who is Marc Ravalomanana?
A Self Made Multimillionaire
It is time to turn to Ravalomanana.  We know a lot less about him 
because until a little over two years ago he was simply a very 
successful businessman.  What we do know about him suggests a man of 
quite a different character than that of self declared Admiral 
Ratsiraka.  Ravalomanana was born 52 years ago into a family of very 
modest means.  As a child he sold his mother's yogurt in the streets. 
He attended ordinary Malagasy schools, where his teachers report that 
he was a very good student, well behaved and kind.  Later he 
completed his studies as an agricultural engineer in Denmark.  He 
then returned to Madagascar and built up a highly successful dairy 
business, Tiko, which now sells dairy products, soft drinks, fruit 
juices, cooking oil, cattle food, plastic containers and other 
products all over Madagascar, and which made him a multimillionaire. 
His company purchases most of its ingredients from local farmers thus 
contributing massively to the strengthening of the agricultural as 
well as the industrial sector of the national economy.

A Patriot with an International Perspective
He is a profound patriot: his political slogan "Ny Tiako Madagascar", 
a play on the name of his company, means "I Love Madagascar".  His 
patriotism, however, does not prevent him from recognizing the 
importance to Madagascar of establishing strong links to the rest of 
the world.  His business staff has included Asian, African, European 
and American managers and technical experts.  His political advisors 
have included experts from all over the world.  His son, now a second 
grader, has attended the American School of Antananarivo (rather than 
the French school, as do most wealthy Malagasy children) since 
Kindergarten because his father believes in the importance of 
exposing his children to a broad international community (more than 
20 nationalities are represented in the American school) and because 
he wants his children to become fluent in English, the international 
language of business and commerce.  In his political speeches he has 
made a point of publicly announcing the support he has received from 
the international community, continuing to do so even after 
diplomatic missions published statements critical of his tactics.  He 
is a man who believes in the importance of business development and 
integration into the international community as fundamental 
preconditions to economic development for his country.


A Deeply Religious Man and a Strong Supporter of Better Education
Ravalomanana is also a deeply religious man, vice president of the 
Madagascar Reformed Protestant Church (over 2 million members in 4000 
congregations).  His religious convictions and his patriotism have 
informed his political life.  His decisions to run for Mayor of 
Antananarivo and two years later for President of his country were 
reached, with some reluctance, at the urging of his family that, as a 
wealthy man, he owed it to his country to "give something back".  He 
is strong-willed, stubborn and opinionated, yes.  He would never have 
achieved what he has if it were not so.  But he is not, as some have 
reported, "a power monger".  Having never adopted the lavish 
lifestyle of some of his politically well-connected countrymen, he 
has instead used his fortune to expand his business, to engage in 
charitable actions and, lately, to fund his political ambitions.  He 
is known throughout the country not simply for his "Made in 
Madagascar" food products, but for his charity, having for many years 
given generously to rebuild churches and schools destroyed by the 
cyclones that regularly hit Madagascar, and for his support of social 
and education programs.  This started well before the development of 
his political ambition and continues to this day.  One of his pet 
projects as mayor of Antananarivo was to supply milk to all primary 
school children, as he is convinced that malnutrition is a major 
cause of poor school performance in this country where nearly half of 
all children are chronically malnourished.  (Unfortunately, he was 
never able to convince any donor to assist him in this effort.). 
Another ambition is to provide Malagasy schools with computers and 
Internet connections to connect students to the International 21st 
Century.   He is a firm proponent of improved education as a key 
precondition to national development.

He starts all of his public meetings with a prayer and has hosted a 
number of ecumenical church services in the 13 May Square (which he 
has also referred to as "the Mall", an allusion to the Mall in 
Washington D.C.) over the course of the past two months.  Christian 
churches, Catholic and Protestant, traditional guardians of the 
people's interests in Malagasy society, have been one of his major 
sources of political support.  He has risked his wealth, his 
business, his life and that of his family (there have already been 
attempts on his life and that of his wife over the last few weeks), 
to enter the presidential elections and he knew he was doing so when 
he decided to run.

Spirit of Volunteerism and Post-election Events
Ravalomanana is clearly no saint, since no one could create a 
business such as his in a country so corrupt without getting his 
hands dirty, but he is equally clearly a man of integrity.  From the 
beginning of his political life, starting with his campaign for the 
position of the Mayor of Antananarivo and continuing throughout the 
presidential electoral process, he has publicly insisted upon and 
consistently applied the principle that those who support him should 
do so voluntarily and with no expectation of personal reward.  At one 
point there were over a million participants (out of a national 
population of about 17 million) in his daily political rallies, all 
there of their own free will.  Because of this attitude, Madagascar 
will never be the same, whatever the final outcome of this crisis. 
In sharp contrast to the political and social apathy and "everyone 
for himself" attitude which has marked Madagascar's population for so 
many years, the extraordinary solidarity, commitment, recognition of 
the power of joint action, hope and spirit of cooperation among 
strangers of all ethnic, economic and social groups that has been 
born from this election-related volunteerism has profoundly marked 
all who have participated in it.

This is in marked contrast to the supporters of Ratsiraka, who have 
largely been recruited through direct payments and/or promises of 
future rewards.  Amusingly, as the contest has become more heated, 
Ratsiraka's demonstrators, many drawn from the very poorest and most 
isolated segments of society, have demanded increasingly larger 
payments to participate in public political actions.  Even so, the 
Ratsiraka camp has been able to mobilize only relative small groups 
of at most a few hundred individuals.

Mounting the Barricades
The same contrast is to be observed between the barricades mounted by 
Ravalomanana supporters and those of the Ratsirakists. 
Ravalomanana's supporters erected barricades in the capital city of 
Antananarivo and other cities and towns throughout the country in 
response to direct threats from the Ratsiraka camp.  First, a threat 
to remove the money from the Central bank moved people from the 13 
May Square to surround that building, blocking access both day and 
night.  Bank employees guarded the building from the inside.  Then a 
threat on Ravalomanana's life resulted in masses of volunteers, 
including up to 10,000 martial arts practitioners setting up 
barricades on all access roads leading to the residence.  Then 
threats to move radio and television transmitters into military camps 
led to the set up of protective barricades around those 
installations.  Progressively, bomb threats against churches and 
schools, rumors and actual attempts (some successful) to remove 
equipment and records from public buildings, fear of the absconding 
of key public officials, threats to bring out tanks to break down 
barricades or "control" crowds, threats on the lives and property of 
Ravalomanana supporters, and so forth resulted in the erecting of 
more barricades by the population.

Initially spontaneous efforts on the part of the population to 
protect their leaders and public goods, the barricades became more 
and more organized.  What was remarkable about the Ravalomanana 
barricades was that they were manned entirely by volunteers, entire 
neighborhoods organizing themselves spontaneously to assure day and 
night protection, establishing a system of access to different levels 
of barricades to neighborhood residents, searching the person and 
bags of those passing through for weapons (men and women separately) 
and supporting those manning the barricades with food, drink, 
communications and entertainment to keep people awake through the 
long, cold, and often rainy nights.

Order and Organization at Ravalomanana's Barricades
As things became more organized, radio communications were set up 
between the barricadists and the Ravalomanana radio station.  Using 
cellular phones and portable radios, the barricade managers 
telephoned the radio station when any threat was perceived (in the 
form of troop movements or gangs of Ratsiraka supporters intent of 
creating havoc).  The radio then broadcast a message calling for 
reinforcements, which elicited an immediate response as hundreds of 
people poured from their homes to reinforce a particular area.  Those 
manning the barricades were ordinary citizens of all ages and both 
sexes, unarmed except for rocks to be used only in case of utmost 
emergency.  Each barricade had an assigned manager who was 
responsible for assuring adherence to rules and preventing 
spontaneous violence or harassment of passers by.  Very few demands 
for bribes were reported at any of these barricades (yes, there are 
rotten apples in any basket.)  The orders were clear: If faced with 
armed personnel, give way, call for reinforcements and close in 
behind the intruders, a perfect strategy in Antananarivo's narrow 
roads.  In the morning, the barricades on strategic thoroughfares 
were cleared to allow for a normal flow of traffic.  Now that the 
civil defense force, the police and most of the military have fallen 
in behind Ravalomanana, most of the barricades have been removed or 
are manned by these forces, and the martial arts practitioners, who 
have refused to "abandon" Marc.

Manned by "volunteers", paid for their services barricades set up in 
the provinces by Ratsiraka's supporters were and are an entirely 
different matter.  These were erected on major access roads from the 
provinces to Antananarivo to prevent the flow of goods, and 
especially fuel, into the capital city.  The purpose of these 
barricades is the economic strangulation of the capital city of 
Antananarivo and Ravalomanana's government.  They are a source of 
considerable revenue for those that man them, and the organizers 
behind them, through the required payment of massive bribes by any 
person or vehicle that desires to pass them.  They are also a key 
component in the substantial black market in vehicle fuel that has 
resulted from the increasing shortage of this product in 
Antananarivo, a black market which appears to be enriching certain 
highly placed Ratsiraka supporters.  (In contrast, when Ravalomanana 
supporters found that 50 kilogram bag of gemstones in the Minister's 
office, they brought it, apparently untouched, to the 13 May Square, 
where they handed it over to Ravalomanana representatives!)

Challenges and Provocations to Undermine Ravalomanana's Policy of Non-violence
It is telling that, while Ravalomanana constantly urges non-violence 
even in the face of provocation, all incidents of violence to date 
have been either instigated by or provoked by the Ratsirakists.  Two 
recent incidents demonstrate this, one in Antananarivo and one in 
Toamasina, the largest port city, which the Ratsirakist governors of 
the five other provinces declared, illegally and without any public 
consultation, to be the "new capital" of Madagascar.  Each of these 
incidents resulted in deaths, injuries and destruction of property. 
In both incidents, according to eyewitness accounts, gangs of youths, 
apparently drunk or drugged and highly excited, apparently paid for 
their "services", attacked a crowd of unarmed Ravalomanana supporters 
with sticks and stones in Antananarivo, with knives, machetes and 
guns in the case of Toamasina.  Most of the crowd scattered, some 
fought back.  In Antananarivo, a Ministry vehicle and a radio station 
were burned.  It is not clear who was responsible for this 
destruction.  In Toamasina, the Ratsiraka gang burned and vandalized 
stores and homes of Ravalomanana supporters, beating up the 
residents, including one couple in their 80s.

In the other provinces, violence has also followed physical attacks 
on Ravalomanana supporters and the destruction of their property. A 
renegade General has terrorized local populations in several 
locations with apparent impunity.  He has allegedly been responsible 
for brutal politically motivated murders of highly visible 
Ravalomanana sympathizers in the northern city of Nosy Be, and 
encouraged the harassment, brutalization and murder of local 
residents originating from the Antananarivo area in that and other 
towns and cities, thus participating in Ratsiraka's increasing 
efforts to turn this electoral contest into a civil war based on old, 
outdated ethnic tensions, efforts so far resisted by the majority of 
the Malagasy population.

In contrast, when, during the first few days of rallies, armed civil 
defense forces attacked 13 May Square demonstrators with teargas 
canisters resulting in two deaths: a child and an old woman. 
Ravalomanana asked the armed forces to consider that they were firing 
on their friends, brothers, sisters, wives and children; asked the 
crowd to realize that these "brothers" were following orders; and 
reassured the armed forces that he understood the difficulty of their 
position, while asking them to remember that their function was the 
protection of the lives, property, and rights of Malagasy citizens. 
No further incidents of the armed forces firing on the local 
population occurred in Antananarivo, even when the entire population 
ignored curfew after the declaration of Martial Law by Ratsiraka. 
Ravalomanana has continued to urge unity in the armed forces, 
favoring neutrality over the creation of divisions that would lead to 
civil war.  Even now that a majority have declared themselves openly 
to be prepared to follow the orders of his newly appointed Minister 
of Defense, he continues to discourage confrontation with those who 
remain loyal to Ratsiraka, preferring dialogue and negotiation over 
violence.

Ravalomanana as a Potential President

There are those in the donor and diplomatic communities who doubt 
Ravalomanana's capacity to effectively rule Madagascar.  They cite 
his political inexperience and lack of advanced academic education as 
support for their beliefs.  Let us remember that effective presidents 
of the United States have included individuals whose first careers 
were not those of professional politicians, including a dentist 
(Harry Truman), an actor, a peanut farmer and a successful 
businessman.  Effective leadership is not based primarily on 
political experience and advanced academic credentials in Political, 
Social, Economic or Legal studies.  It is true that no one can know 
how Ravalomanana will succeed as President of Madagascar.  We do know 
what the outgoing President has accomplished, and we know that 
Ravalomanana is the people's choice.  Besides that, we have had 
significant demonstrations of Ravalomanana's abilities to manage, 
govern and lead.

Marc Ravalomanana is a man of exceptional gifts.  He speaks multiple 
languages, including English, French, and German.  He is wide 
traveled, through his business trips to Europe, Asia, the United 
States and other parts of the world.  Starting in the early 1980s, he 
built a multimillion-dollar business from scratch.  He is a serious 
and excellent financial manager.  When he received a World Bank loan 
in 1992 to expand his business into the production of cattle feed, he 
paid back the loan in a year and a half, three and a half years 
before it was due.  This so impressed Bank managers that they 
accorded him a second loan, despite a Bank policy that limited such 
loans to one per individual.  As Mayor of the City of Antananarivo, 
his outstanding performance was widely recognized by the Malagasy and 
donor communities. He turned around the city's finances, which were 
in arrears when he took office and which are now in the black.

He is a man of initiative and imagination.  Early in his term as 
Mayor, he launched a campaign to solicit contributions from private 
individuals and donors to clean up the city.  With the funds, he 
bought garbage trucks and large metal garbage bins, which were placed 
around the city.  Garbage has since then largely disappeared off the 
streets of Antananarivo.  (Ironically, the garbage bins have served 
as useful components of the barricades during this period of 
crisis!).  He planted flowers and established small parks throughout 
the city.  He built roads and improved the circulation of traffic by 
putting well trained traffic police at key intersections during high 
traffic hours of the day.  He cleaned up and renovated the central 
square.  For the year 2000 Millennium celebrations he erected 
bandstands and organized neighborhood parties throughout the city 
and, with personal funds put on an impressing 45 minute displays of 
firework, rivaling those of the 4th of July in Washington D. C.  When 
the Ratsiraka government attempted to sabotage these activities by 
cutting the electricity, Ravalomanana responded by bringing in his 
own generators.  Early in his Mayoral career he established contacts 
with Mayors of other cities in the United States and Europe, seeking 
their advice on the effective accomplishment of his mandate as Mayor. 
Some he brought to Madagascar (paid for from his own pocket) to work 
with him directly in Antananarivo.

He is a man of exceptional energy, needing little sleep and capable 
of sustained work, day and night.  Highly observant, he appears to be 
an excellent judge of people, a shrewd and rapid analyst and a 
decisive "man of action".  After listening carefully to his advisors, 
he makes his decision known with one of his favorite and frequently 
used phrases is "Let's roll!"

As a politician his accomplishments have been breathtaking.  Two 
years ago, he was a virtual unknown.  He launched an American style 
electoral campaign, complete with billboards, radio and television 
advertising, block parties, tee shirts and baseball hats bearing his 
picture distributed by the tens of thousands and campaign speeches 
throughout the city.  Less than two months later he won a landslide 
victory despite concerted efforts by Ratsiraka loyalists to undermine 
his credibility.  Announcing his intention to run for the presidency 
in October 2001, he again turned to international political advisors 
to help him organize his campaign.  Two months later he emerged as 
the only serious political contender to the current President, 
Ratsiraka.  He was able to motivate millions of Malagasy, many of 
them previously politically apathetic, to stand behind him.  In the 
post electoral crisis he adopted the populist and non-violent 
strategies of some of recent history's greatest political leaders. 
He walked with his supporters in the streets.  He met with them in 
the Central Square.  At the same time he negotiated with the 
powerful, until step by calm step, his movement was joined by some of 
the nation's most highly regarded intellectuals, by government civil 
servants, by members of the business community and their employees, 
by students, by the armed forces.  He has ignored and overcome 
repeated provocation through peaceful means: the attempt to destroy 
his business, the attempts on his life and that of his wife, the 
declaration of a State of Emergency and Martial Law, the opposition 
of the diplomatic and donor communities, and so on.  This is a savvy 
politician not afraid to listen to advisors with more experience, but 
completely in control of his own decisions.

He is a man of foresight, realism and courage, who realized fully the 
challenges that awaited him as a serious contender for the Presidency 
of Madagascar.  Prior to the elections he made arrangements for 
bodyguards for himself and his family; he brought in a fully 
functional radio and television station capable of nationwide 
coverage; he arranged for helicopters to facilitate his travel around 
the country.  (During the campaign, Ratsirakists attempted to block 
his access to provincial cities by barring access routes to local 
airports!)  He has had a solution for every problem, generally 
prepared well in advance.

Finally, he is in the process of demonstrating the seriousness of his 
stated intention to rule a united Madagascar peacefully, with 
transparency and with a drastic reduction in the level of corruption 
and mismanagement.  The newly named Ministers of his government 
represent people from all parts of the country and from many ethnic 
groups.  Almost all are men (and one woman) of recognized competence 
and integrity.  The Prime Minister was Minister of Foreign Affairs 
from 1993 -1996. His vice Prime Minister in charge of Economy and 
finance is U.S. educated (with USAID funding) and previously occupied 
the post of Coordinator of Governance within the United Nations 
Development Organization in Madagascar.  The Minister of Justice was 
the 1st President of the National High Court.  Four other Ministers 
occupied posts at the head of Ministries during earlier 
administrations: the Minister of Interior, the Minister of Education 
(who was also head of the University of Fianarantsoa), the Minister 
of Territorial Administration, and the Minister of Youth and Sports. 
The Minister of Post and Telecommunications was a valued 
IT/communications expert at the American Embassy before Ravalomanana 
hired him away at the when he became Mayor.  The Secretary of State 
for the National Police is a retired Israeli trained General. All of 
the officials of the Ravalomanana government appear to have received 
clear instruction to rid their Ministries of the incompetent and 
incorrigibly corrupt, yes, but also not to engage in witch-hunts.

This man is as yet unproven on the world stage, but in Madagascar he 
has already left a significant and positive imprint.  Last week 
children in Antananarivo returned to school and civil servants 
returned to work, many of foot due to the fuel shortage.  It is now 
primarily the continued existence of the economic barricades erected 
by Ratsiraka's paid lackeys, the threat of civil and ethnic war 
initiated by Ratsiraka's paid militias and mercenaries; and the 
intransigence of the international community which are resulting in 
the continued economic and political crisis in which Madagascar's 
future still hangs in the balance.

Perspectives on the Reactions of the International Community
The odd reactions of the International Diplomatic and Donor 
communities to this crisis are perhaps more understandable if we 
remember the following realities: France, Madagascar's former 
colonial master, has re-established its strong economic and political 
links with the country since the early 90s.  The French still 
consider Madagascar their personal economic and political fiefdom. 
Ratsiraka has apparently lubricated his relationships with the French 
through preferential treatment to French businesses willing to pay 
the requisite bribes, inclusion of French citizens in illegal 
exportation of gemstones, rare animals and other products of 
Madagascar (strong rumors persist that this includes the highest 
levels of the French government.) and other arrangements which 
benefit both him and his international "friends".   Ratsiraka is 
known to have established a strong personal relationship with 
President Jacques Chirac of France.  The French don't like 
Ravalomanana because of his reportedly strong leanings toward the 
Anglophone world, including South Africa and the United States.  We 
should not forget that Madagascar is a poor country with substantial 
natural resources.  It is one of the primary producers of shrimp, a 
vastly profitable business.  The same is true for vanilla, lychees 
and essential oils.  Significant amounts of oil and natural gas have 
been discovered, and, the official information to the contrary, it is 
rumored that these reserves may be of greater volume and better 
quantity than we are led to believe, but that the Ratsiraka 
government has been paid by the French to reserve these resources for 
unspecified future strategic purposes.  Other more or less obscure 
and rare minerals have also been discovered here.

As for the US government, the motivations behind its reactions are 
more difficult to decipher.  Does the U.S. simply not wish to anger 
its ally, France, given its preoccupation with the "War on Terrorism" 
in Asia and the Near East?  Is Madagascar simply too small and 
distant to be of concern?  It is also true that the official American 
diplomatic community in Madagascar is quite small, consists largely 
of people that have been here for two years or less (the U. S. 
Ambassador arrived only 2 months ago.) and is generally poorly 
integrated into the Malagasy community.  They may simply not clearly 
understand fully what is happening here.

As for the OAU (Organization of African Unity), it is known that the 
head of the recent OAU  delegation which was in Madagascar last week 
to negotiate a "solution" to the crisis, met, prior to coming to 
Madagascar, with French President Chirac and an emissary of the 
President of Algeria, an old "Comrade in Arms" of Ratsiraka (who, 
just over a week ago sent him a private military plane to the "new 
capital" of Toamasina containing radio equipment?! (Given the secrecy 
surrounding the unloading of this airplane, most believe that it 
contained something else besides "communications 
equipment"...arms?)".  Their impartiality is thus highly suspect.

Basically the international diplomatic community has refused to 
recognize publicly the massive fraud surrounding the electoral 
process nor the popular support for Ravalomanana.  The French roundly 
condemned the "Self Declaration" of Ravalomanana as President, within 
two hours of the investiture.  The United Nations and OAU joined in 
this condemnation.  The U.S. more carefully  "objected", yet the U. 
S. Embassy continues to maintain a public (and little believed) 
posture of "neutrality" and non-interference in the internal affairs 
of a "sovereign state".  Nothing has been said by anyone concerning 
any of the illegal acts perpetrated by Ratsiraka: the State of 
Emergency, Martial Law, the attempt to balkanize the country by 
transferring the capital to Toamasina, the economic barricades, the 
violence of the militias, the appropriation of two container loads of 
freshly minted bills arriving in Toamasina from the printing presses 
in Europe for the Malagasy Central Bank, and so on.

All indications are that the international community want Ratsiraka 
to stay in power, or if not Ratsiraka, then an "alternative" 
candidate.  The latest breaking news suggests that this might be 
Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, the National Secretary of Ratsiraka's 
political party, Arema, and Vice Prime Minister of the outgoing 
government.  Articles are starting to appear in the press suggesting 
that his is "the voice of reason."  Slogans are starting to appear on 
the walls of some provincial cities that Ravalomanana and Ratsiraka 
are two of a kind and should both go.  What is most interesting about 
this development is that a reliable source close to French political 
power has reported that Rajaonarivelo was designated as much as two 
years ago by the French government as the favored successor to 
Ratsiraka.  This suggests that the appearance of his name at this 
time may be part of a Machiavellian French strategy to assure his 
succession after Ratsiraka instigated violence has brought the 
country to the edge of civil war..  Obviously, Rajaonarivelo, known 
to have participated in and benefited from the many forms of 
government corruption under Ratsiraka, would simply continue the 
current regime under a different face.

An event that occurred on Friday, March 15 lends increasing credence 
to this scenario.  Last night a general loyal to Ratsiraka entered 
the city with four truckloads of military personnel apparently 
brought in from Nosy Be in the north of Madagascar.  With the 
reduction of the barricades over the last few days, it was not 
possible to stop them. On March 15 the planned installation of the 
new Prime Minister in his official offices was attempted.  At the 
rally called in the 13 May Square Ravalomanana partisans were warned 
that they should be extremely careful as there was intelligence that 
pro-Ratsiraka elements were to infiltrate the crowds that were to 
accompany the Prime Minister, as they have all the other new 
government officials.  These infiltrators, they were informed, had 
been instructed to fire on the pro-Ratsiraka Military Units, which 
were known to be waiting for them near the Prime Minister's Offices 
and which had orders to prevent the installation of the new PM, 
Jacques Sylla.  The soldiers were fully armed and had been given 
instructions to fire on the demonstrators if provoked.  Arriving at 
the PM Offices, the military was indeed waiting for them.  A 
prolonged negotiation ensued, leading to an agreement by the Military 
to allow Sylla to explore the surroundings/gardens of the building, 
but not to enter the offices.  His supporters were not to follow him. 
What happened next is not entirely clear.  Apparently there was a 
confrontation between the Military and the crowd.  Possibly someone 
rolled some burning tires down a hill in the direction of the 
military unit.  The Military responded with teargas canisters, but, 
to their credit, did not fire on the crowd.  Still, one person is 
reported dead and 40 injured.  This is just the kind of incident that 
could lead to calls for a "neutral" interim government, followed by 
elections (managed, of course by Ratsiraka's old political machine, 
most of which is still in place at lower levels of government).  An 
"alternate" candidate could then run against Ravalomanana (Ratsiraka 
could step down before the election) and, with application of the 
same fraudulent practices used in the initial campaign, could "win", 
assuring the survival of the political machine that has misruled this 
nation since 1975.

To Be Continued...
How will this end?  Ultimately this will be decided by the people of 
Madagascar themselves and, as one highly placed American diplomat 
repeatedly pointed out prior to the elections, the Malagasy people 
"will get the government they deserve" according to their 
determination for change.  However, the action or inaction of the 
international diplomatic community will play a significant role in 
the manner this outcome is achieved and, quite possibly, in the 
outcome itself.  In fact, it already has.  The silence surrounding 
the actions of President Ratsiraka has contributed to prolongation of 
the conflict and has constituted a license to kill for the Ratsiraka 
government.

We are not suggesting the international community "interfere in the 
affairs of a sovereign state" by sending in troops (as has been done 
in other countries, and as the French government may be tempted to do 
if Ratsiraka successfully escalates ethnic violence...Why else have 
they stationed a war ship off the coast of Djibouti?).  We are 
suggesting that the international community already has interfered. 
Its "condemnation" and "objections" to the actions of one side and 
its silence in face of the much more dangerous actions of the other 
constitutes such an interference.  So does its support for the 
unrealistic, and possibly pernicious, recommendations of the 
international negotiators sent by the United Nations and the 
Organization of African Unity.  We are suggesting that it is now time 
to balance this interference in favor of the desire of the Malagasy 
people for a free and open democracy and against an escalation of 
violence and the continued power of a cynical and corrupt government.

If not, the international community will be complicit in a crime 
against the humanity of a peaceful people.  How many deaths will it 
take before we officially recognize the human rights abuses 
perpetuated by the Ratsiraka government?  When presented with 
numerous and nationwide cases of terrorism against and even murder of 
Ravalomanana supporters, a U. S. Embassy spokesperson stated that it 
was not the job of the U.S. Embassy to report human rights abuses 
and, in any case, there was "no evidence of systematic and prolonged 
abuse".  "This has not gone on long enough for us to report it", she 
stated.  How long is "long enough"?  How many deaths does it take 
before we can talk about "genocide"?  Must we wait until Ravalomanana 
is forced to fight for the rights of the Malagasy people with more 
than sit-ins, garbage bins and stones?  Do we want to have our image 
of "violent, black Africa" confirmed before we cry out in protest? 
Will we stand by as a "third" candidate is slipped into place to 
continue the present corruption and theft of the resources of a 
people, in attempt to postpone the fight to another day?

President George Bush vowed to the American people that another 
genocide would not occur under his watch.  It is time for the 
American government and the international community to acknowledge 
their responsibility for what will happen next and to take 
appropriate action, to investigate and publicly condemn the acts of a 
dictator, before it is too late.

ÀÀÀÀÀ

About the Authors, continued
Avana  (which means "rainbow" in Malagasy) was born of the efforts of 
French residents of Madagascar and binational resident 
French/Malagasy citizens to assure truthful and unbiased reporting of 
the events surrounding the current political crisis in Madagascar in 
the French and Malagasy press and to protest the pro-Ratsiraka 
actions of the French government.  The Association has expanded 
rapidly over the last few weeks to include hundreds of members from 
more than ten other countries and Malagasy citizens from all parts of 
this nation and has broadened its focus to include the international 
press and international diplomatic community as a whole. 
International members of Avana are made up primarily of international 
residents of Madagascar who have spent five or more years in this 
country.  Most have lived here for decades.  Now Avana members also 
include "friends of Madagascar" living in other countries.
We come from all walks of life: from the business, government, media, 
military, development, missionary and church and even the diplomatic 
communities.  We are all mature adults, ranging in age from our 
twenties to over 80.  Many of us hold and have held positions of high 
responsibility.  We are not naive idealists. We are, as a group, not 
fervent partisans of the opposition candidate, Marc Ravalomanana, but 
have, over the past couple of months individually and collectively 
concluded that he represents the best chance Madagascar has at this 
time of becoming a fully democratic, truly independent and 
economically successful country.  This conclusion is based on our 
personal observations and experiences over the course of many years. 
More recently our members have actively participated as observers and 
or full participants in demonstrations, popular meetings, days and 
nights spent at the protective barricades erected by the population 
in Antananarivo, the Capital City, and other similar events.  We have 
met with and interviewed highly placed diplomats from numerous 
international diplomatic Missions and International Organizations, 
Malagasy Deputies (Congressmen) and Justices and representatives of 
the newly installed Ravalomanana government (We all know many 
representatives of the outgoing government).  We have closely 
followed both the local and international press.  Some of us have 
known both Didier Ratsiraka and members of his inner circle and Marc 
Ravalomanana personally for many years.
We are fully committed to Marc Ravalomanana's non-violent approach to 
the achievement of a democratic transition in Madagascar.  We 
specifically do not advocate vengeful reprisal against members or 
partisans of the outgoing government.  We do, however, favor an 
international investigation in order to assure the return of 
Madagascar property and resources which have been transferred to 
private hands.
The above document is based on our personal, eyewitness observation 
of events and the accounts of other eyewitness observers in whose 
veracity we have reason to believe.  We have made every possible 
effort to verify our information.  The use of the word "apparent" 
indicates that we believe the information presented to be reliable, 
but have not yet been able to completely verify it.  "Rumors" are 
reported only if we consider them believable based on our knowledge 
of the situation.

International members are welcome to join Avana.  Please e-mail our 
website: Avana@xxxxxxxxxxx for further information.


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]


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