----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, April 01, 2004 5:23
PM
Subject: [L-I] BBC News on Maoist
advances in Nepal
Analysis: Maoists
strike east
By
Rabindra Mishra
BBC Nepali service
The
killing of 29 security force members by Maoists in Nepal's eastern district of
Bhojpur is a major blow to the Nepalese army, which had claimed it was eroding
the rebels' power.
Though few believed in the army's claim,
there was a general impression that the rebels were finding it more difficult
to launch big attacks against the joint mobilisation of the army, police and
paramilitary forces.
However, the focus of the security agencies
had been in the country's mid-west, where the rebels have their stronghold,
and in the capital, Kathmandu, and its adjoining cities.
This
strategy is said to have forced the rebels to move east to escape security
operations.
The overnight attack by hundreds of rebels in Bhojpur
proves their consolidation of power there.
Military
assistance
In a recent interview with
the BBC Nepali service, a senior leader and spokesman of the Maoists, Krishna
Bahadur Mahara, said they were preparing big offensives.
If the latest attack is
the start of the campaign Mr Mahara claimed, the Nepalese army may have to
gear itself up for further, possibly bigger assaults.
When they
pulled out of the first peace talks in 2001, the rebels made several
successful attacks on army barracks, killing hundreds of
soldiers.
However, since the breakdown of the latest ceasefire in
August, that situation has changed.
The Nepalese army has
received military assistance and advice from various countries, including the
United States, Britain and India.
This has boosted the morale of
the security forces.
However, the Bhojpur attack has shown that
the morale of the rebels has not eroded either.
Within the past
few months, the rebels have announced the formation of eight of the nine
autonomous regional governments they want to establish in the
country.
They say that is in preparation for the takeover of the
central government in Kathmandu.
Highly
critical
Neither the government nor the rebels say they have
closed the doors on peace talks.
However, unless the Maoists give
up their insistence on removing the monarchy, talks in the near future look
unlikely.
King Gyanendra has sidelined all the political parties
since he dismissed the elected government and took over executive power in
August 2002.
Since then, he has tried to consolidate the power of
the monarchy.
The king timed a recent visit to the mid-west with
the ninth anniversary of the Maoist insurgency, which started in the
region.
He has been visiting army headquarters and appearing in
public around the country.
All the political parties have been
highly critical of his assumption of executive power but so far he has ignored
them.
The king knows that he has the full backing of the security
forces and several international powers.
That is probably what
gives him the confidence to defy other political forces.
Given
this show of strength, the Maoists' dream of turning Nepal into a republic may
not materialise soon.
The major political parties, despite their
criticism of the king, have not yet opposed the institution of
monarchy.
If they did change their position and join hands with
the rebels in their republican demands, the king could find himself in deep
trouble.
The student wings of some parties are now applying
pressure for a republican stance.
It is difficult to say how
likely this change of policy would be, but the king would be wise to pay heed
to the warnings.
Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/south_asia/3529967.stm
Published: 2004/03/03 16:10:56 GMT
© BBC MMIV
_______________________________________________
Leninist-International
mailing list
Leninist-International@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
To change your
options or unsubscribe go
to:
http://lists.econ.utah.edu/mailman/listinfo/leninist-international
