avrdude5.5 + stk500: ***failed

I can read but not write the flash ROM.  I am using the avrdude.conf
file that's distributed with avrdude 5.5; I haven't made any changes.
I have a binary file (should it even matter what's in it??) called
blinky and here's what happens:

$ avrdude -P/dev/ttyS1 -p8515 -v -cstk500v2 -F -U flash:w:blinky

avrdude: Version 5.5, compiled on Dec 25 2007 at 12:57:01
         Copyright (c) 2000-2005 Brian Dean, http://www.bdmicro.com/

         System wide configuration file is 
"/users/ted/usr/avrdude/etc/avrdude.conf"
         User configuration file is "/users/ted/.avrduderc"
         User configuration file does not exist or is not a regular file, 
skipping

         Using Port            : /dev/ttyS1
         Using Programmer      : stk500v2
         AVR Part              : AT90S8515
         Chip Erase delay      : 20000 us
         PAGEL                 : P00
         BS2                   : P00
         RESET disposition     : dedicated
         RETRY pulse           : SCK
         serial program mode   : yes
         parallel program mode : yes
         Timeout               : 200
         StabDelay             : 100
         CmdexeDelay           : 25
         SyncLoops             : 32
         ByteDelay             : 0
         PollIndex             : 3
         PollValue             : 0x53
         Memory Detail         :

                                  Block Poll               Page                 
      Polled
           Memory Type Mode Delay Size  Indx Paged  Size   Size #Pages MinW  
MaxW   ReadBack
           ----------- ---- ----- ----- ---- ------ ------ ---- ------ ----- 
----- ---------
           eeprom         4    12   128    0 no        512    0      0  4000  
9000 0x80 0x7f
           flash          4    12   128    0 no       8192    0      0  4000  
9000 0x7f 0x7f
           signature      0     0     0    0 no          3    0      0     0    
 0 0x00 0x00
           fuse           0     0     0    0 no          1    0      0     0    
 0 0x00 0x00
           lock           0     0     0    0 no          1    0      0  9000  
9000 0x00 0x00

         Programmer Type : STK500V2
         Description     : Atmel STK500 Version 2.x firmware
         Programmer Model: STK500
         Hardware Version: 2
         Firmware Version: 2.10
         Topcard         : Unknown
         Vtarget         : 5.1 V
         Varef           : 5.0 V
         Oscillator      : 3.686 MHz
         SCK period      : 10.9 us

avrdude: AVR device initialized and ready to accept instructions

Reading | ################################################## | 100% 0.01s

avrdude: Device signature = 0x1e9306
avrdude: Expected signature for AT90S8515 is 1E 93 01
avrdude: safemode: Fuse reading not support by programmer.
              Safemode disabled.
avrdude: NOTE: FLASH memory has been specified, an erase cycle will be performed
         To disable this feature, specify the -D option.
avrdude: erasing chip
avrdude: reading input file "/users/ted/usr/local/src/AVR/blinky"
avrdude: input file /users/ted/usr/local/src/AVR/blinky auto detected as raw 
binary
avrdude: writing flash (5586 bytes):

Writing |  ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  
 ***failed;  

[...and on and on...]