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CryoNet - Wed 4 Jul 2007

#29634: Skeptic magazine argues for the antisingularity [Mark Plus]

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Message #29634
From: "Mark Plus" <markplus@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Skeptic magazine argues for the antisingularity
Date: Tue, 03 Jul 2007 19:24:00 -0700

Skeptic magazine, edited by Michael Shermer, has taken a definitely critical
stance towards the claims of transhumanism and singularitarianism in recent
years. I support that effort, because we need to weed out the dumb
transhumanist ideas as quickly as possible so we can try to replace them
with better ones.

The current issue has an article by Mordechai Ben-Ari titled, "The End of
Science Revisited: The Case for Incrementalism in the Future of Science."
I've scanned it, and you can download the Adobe file from this link:

http://www.box.net/shared/ty7bxa0zv6

Ben-Ari states,

"I am not arguing that scientific progres will cease; instead, I am raising
grave doubts that revolutions in scientific knowledge will occur, certainly
not at an accelerated pace nor even at the rate of the past century and a
half. In fact, I perceive only two gaps in our knowledge that could lead to
revolutions: the relation between quantum mechanics and general relativity,
and the biology of cognitive processes. However, the latter is likely to be
solved within current biochemisry and biophysics, and while the former may
result in significant new theories, it will not count as a revolution
because it will not lead to new technological capabilities nor will it have
a significant philosophical impact.

"This review shows that technology has been surprisingly stagnant during the
past half century. The two areas that showed revolutionary change - light
processing and computers - are not based upon new science, and are showing
signs of having run their course of accelerated growth.

"These conclusions have a significant consequence: We must deal with our
problems within the current framework of science and technology. We will not
solve overpopulation by colonizing distant galaxies; we will not eliminate
poverty and disease through hitherto unimaginable ways of growing food; a
miraculous source of energy will not be discovered and pollution will not
magically disappear; we cannot ignore the possible damages that can be
caused by climate change in the hope that they will be eliminated or
mitigated by revolutionary scientific progress. Science and technology can
and will contribute to solving problems by incremental improvements, but
accelerationists who purvey utopian visions are causing serious damage to
our future."

Well, that would explain why the 21st Century stubbornly refuses to look as
"futuristic" as I would have expected.

"There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in
all manner of nonsense." (Narim on "Stargate SG-1")

Mark Plus

_________________________________________________________________
Don't get caught with egg on your face. Play Chicktionary!
http://club.live.com/chicktionary.aspx?icid=chick_hotmailtextlink2

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CryoNet #29632

CryoNet - Tue 3 Jul 2007 #29632: Re: More on marketing [John de Rivaz] Rate This Digest: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29632%2D29632 Administrivia To subscribe to CryoNet, send email to: cryonet-request@xxxxxxxxxxx with the subject line (not message _body_): subscribe To unsubscribe, use the subject line: unsubscribe ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Message #29632 From: "John de Rivaz" <john@xxxxxxxxxxx> References: <20070702090002.72596.qmail@xxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: Re: More on marketing Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2007 11:37:16 +0100 > What I am talking about is [a church] servicing those not yet signed-up. > Another > difference is that it is a service to individuals, while the group > aspect is inherent in the idea I am proposing. Most if not all "group orientated" people are content with the idea of the group surviving, and are not concerned with individuals within it. They don't seem attracted to the cryonics concept. They are happy to live on in their works or their children and grandchildren. They don't see the need to live on in their apartment. (neither did Woody Allen really, unless he signed up secretly.) > You are still thinking in individual terms. People are perfectly > happy to part with 1/10 of their income to churches that promise them > eternal life and provide a social environment that reinforces the > approach. Really? Why is their such an "industry" of accountants and lawyers around avoiding taxes legally? I would be very surprised if this 10% tithe has ever been taken seriously, unless enforced by violence of some sort. It is just something that was written down a long time ago and perpetuated in literature. > There has to be a enough support to get a group going and self- > financing. Once there is a model that works, it can be duplicated > indefinitely. Clearly this has not happened for cryonics. Many religions started as rebel movements of outlaws who by definition would have had no assets to tithe. Obviously a time comes when the religion moves inside the law (as with Constantine and the Christians) but that was hundreds of years later. > National Institute for Curtailing Expenditure excellent!! Yes, the economic advantages of offering cryopreservation for elderly or sick people with no chance of recovery and a poor quality of life are clear. However I cannot see it being acceptable ethically, however illogical this is. The New Scientist poll suggested that a significant number of people would take up free cryopreservation if it was offered voluntarily. Group minded people could be motivated to take this up to benefit the group, but those left would worry that they had been coerced into it. However these considerations have not prevented the dissection of organs from live people for transplant purposes. This was fiercely debated at one time. At present the practise appears to be accepted as long as the person losing the organ is not paid for it. -- Sincerely, John de Rivaz: http://John.deRivaz.com for websites including Cryonics Europe, Longevity Report, The Venturists, Porthtowan, Alec Harley Reeves - inventor, Arthur Bowker - potter, de Rivaz genealogy, Nomad .. and more Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29632 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- End of CryoNet Digest *********************

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CryoNet #29635 - #29637

CryoNet - Thu 5 Jul 2007 #29636: Re: "The Future Aint What it Used to Be!" [RudiHoffman] #29637: Re: More on marketing [David Stodolsky] Rate This Digest: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29635%2D29637 Administrivia To subscribe to CryoNet, send email to: cryonet-request@xxxxxxxxxxx with the subject line (not message _body_): subscribe To unsubscribe, use the subject line: unsubscribe To post a message to CryoNet, send your message to: cryonet@xxxxxxxxxxx (Note: A "Subject:" line starting the message body replaces the "Subject:" line in the header. This gives a second opportunity to provide a meaningful subject line.) Since all CryoNet messages are archived and accessible via WWW, including search engines, make certain that your postings reflect how you want the world to see you. To retrieve past messages, send email to: archive@xxxxxxxxxxx with the message numbers in the subject line. (Message 0003 describes the advanced syntax.) You also can retrieve them via the CryoNet web page at URL: http://www.cryonet.org/ For administrative or other questions/suggestions, send email to me at "kqb@xxxxxxxxxxx" with "cryonics" in the subject line. - Kevin Q. Brown ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Message #29636 From: RudiHoffman@xxxxxxx Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2007 10:49:17 EDT Subject: Re: "The Future Aint What it Used to Be!" In a message dated 7/4/2007 4:01:17 A.M. Eastern Standard Time, owner-cryonet@xxxxxxxxxxx writes: Mark Plus wrote: The current issue has an article by Mordechai Ben-Ari titled, "The End of Science Revisited: The Case for Incrementalism in the Future of Science." I've scanned it, and you can download the Adobe file from this link: http://www.box.net/shared/ty7bxa0 (Rudi writing) While I don't always agree with Mark Plus, he has referenced a rather compelling article here. So, allow me to contribute a small piece to the thread of whiny "where's my jet car?" protests and related handwringing because the future is coming along way to goddam slow for many of us in the "technoutopian" class. Jesus...the above is a pretty great, if run on and too long, sentence! Seriously,while I am regretfully hyperaware of the "angst" many of us in cryonics have about slow breakthroughs, it is probably important for us to continue to take the long view and maintain a reasonable level of optimism. For those of us who pride ourselves on rationality and realistic assessments of reality, there may be a countervailing personal benefit to doing something that would have to be described as "keeping the faith." (No, this is not the kind of "Faith" that Sam Harris say's we need to end...I am not advocating believing anything without reasonable evidence.) But I do think we as human beings tend to be happier when we ARE able to focus on the multiple ways life is getting better. And, there is a great concept I have often referred to as the "USEFUL MYTH." (To my knowledge, this verbiage is original with me...but it probably is not. Nearly every time I think I have created an original or semi-profound idea, I later find that someone not only thought of it FIRST...they articulated and wrote it BETTER than I ever HAD or probably COULD! I remember how profoundly this affected me reading the early work in "Extropy" magazine, in which Max More's writing was seminal, crisp, and articulated ideas I thought were original with me. But he wrote them much more clearly. That is why I sell cryonics insurance and retirement plans and Max is a professional philosopher.) Most people have the "useful myth" of religion or superstition to help keep them in a reasonably good frame of mind. Those of us who for better or worse have had enough Anthropology and Science education who are now forced to deal with the harsh likelihood (reality?) that we exist in a Universe that does not give two figs for us NEED some kind of equivalent "Useful myth." And, for many of us fans of Kurzweil and Drexler, the "useful myth" has been that the whiz bang nanotech of the near term future will start making life a LOT better for everyone. (Never mind the pretty obvious fact that the "whiz bang" technology I am writing this on, a fast computer connected at broadband speeds to a astonishing world wide web, and it is a good tool...and yet it brings me huge amounts of frustration and annoyance. I spent most of my business day yesterday dealing with my fucker of a computer, trying to make it do what it is supposed to do. Never mind the jet pack...Where the hell is my "productivity dividend?") And now Mark Plus comes along and refers us to a well written, decently researched article that takes away at least part of the glitter on this "accelerating future." Well, Mark, and "Skeptic" magazine, as Stephen Colbert would say, "We don't care about your rational and scientific analysis! What do we FEEL about this?" And I FEEL...or at least I desperately WANT to feel... that life is INDEED getting better for most of us. And that the blessings of technology and prosperity will continue to expand our lives and capabilities, and make our future life experience something close to never ending bliss. Here endeth my particular faith, a faith I readily and rationally acknowledge may be a "Useful Myth." Happy 4th...celebrate Liberty. Rudi Rudi Richard Hoffman CFP CLU ChFC Board Member Financial Planning Association fpafla.org Board Member Salvation Army salvationarmy.org Member Alcor Life Extension Foundation alcor.org Certified Financial Planner(TM) CFP Board of Standards Member Libertarian Party libertarianparty.org Member National Rifle Association nra.org Member World Transhumanist Association http://transhumanism.org/ World's Leading Cryonics Insurance Provider rudihoffman.com ************************************** See what's free at http://www.aol.com. Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" [ AUTOMATICALLY SKIPPING HTML ENCODING! ] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29636 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Message #29637 References: <list-4560459@xxxxxxxxxxxx> From: David Stodolsky <david.stodolsky@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: Re: More on marketing Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2007 19:26:12 +0200 On 2 Jul 2007, at 12:37, John de Rivaz wrote: >> What I am talking about is [a church] servicing those not yet >> signed-up. >> Another >> difference is that it is a service to individuals, while the group >> aspect is inherent in the idea I am proposing. > > Most if not all "group orientated" people are content with the idea > of the > group surviving, and are not concerned with individuals within it. You are confusing two issues. I am not talking about individualism vs. collectivism. The point here is to benefit the individual by group action. This is exactly why cryonics organizations have been formed. > >> You are still thinking in individual terms. People are perfectly >> happy to part with 1/10 of their income to churches that promise them >> eternal life and provide a social environment that reinforces the >> approach. > > Really? Why is their such an "industry" of accountants and lawyers > around > avoiding taxes legally? A lot of the people who avoid taxes legally do so by making contributions to charitable (church) organizations. > >> There has to be a enough support to get a group going and self- >> financing. Once there is a model that works, it can be duplicated >> indefinitely. > > Clearly this has not happened for cryonics. And it will not, until a full service solution is offered. > > Yes, the economic advantages of offering cryopreservation for > elderly or > sick people with no chance of recovery and a poor quality of life > are clear. > However I cannot see it being acceptable ethically, however > illogical this > is. This is precisely why large numbers of members are needed. When politicians see that there is a sizeable group of highly organized voters for the cryo option, they will allow it. dss David Stodolsky davidstodolsky@xxxxxxx Skype: davidstodolsky Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29637 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- End of CryoNet Digest *********************

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CryoNet #29632

CryoNet - Tue 3 Jul 2007 #29632: Re: More on marketing [John de Rivaz] Rate This Digest: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29632%2D29632 Administrivia To subscribe to CryoNet, send email to: cryonet-request@xxxxxxxxxxx with the subject line (not message _body_): subscribe To unsubscribe, use the subject line: unsubscribe ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Message #29632 From: "John de Rivaz" <john@xxxxxxxxxxx> References: <20070702090002.72596.qmail@xxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: Re: More on marketing Date: Mon, 2 Jul 2007 11:37:16 +0100 > What I am talking about is [a church] servicing those not yet signed-up. > Another > difference is that it is a service to individuals, while the group > aspect is inherent in the idea I am proposing. Most if not all "group orientated" people are content with the idea of the group surviving, and are not concerned with individuals within it. They don't seem attracted to the cryonics concept. They are happy to live on in their works or their children and grandchildren. They don't see the need to live on in their apartment. (neither did Woody Allen really, unless he signed up secretly.) > You are still thinking in individual terms. People are perfectly > happy to part with 1/10 of their income to churches that promise them > eternal life and provide a social environment that reinforces the > approach. Really? Why is their such an "industry" of accountants and lawyers around avoiding taxes legally? I would be very surprised if this 10% tithe has ever been taken seriously, unless enforced by violence of some sort. It is just something that was written down a long time ago and perpetuated in literature. > There has to be a enough support to get a group going and self- > financing. Once there is a model that works, it can be duplicated > indefinitely. Clearly this has not happened for cryonics. Many religions started as rebel movements of outlaws who by definition would have had no assets to tithe. Obviously a time comes when the religion moves inside the law (as with Constantine and the Christians) but that was hundreds of years later. > National Institute for Curtailing Expenditure excellent!! Yes, the economic advantages of offering cryopreservation for elderly or sick people with no chance of recovery and a poor quality of life are clear. However I cannot see it being acceptable ethically, however illogical this is. The New Scientist poll suggested that a significant number of people would take up free cryopreservation if it was offered voluntarily. Group minded people could be motivated to take this up to benefit the group, but those left would worry that they had been coerced into it. However these considerations have not prevented the dissection of organs from live people for transplant purposes. This was fiercely debated at one time. At present the practise appears to be accepted as long as the person losing the organ is not paid for it. -- Sincerely, John de Rivaz: http://John.deRivaz.com for websites including Cryonics Europe, Longevity Report, The Venturists, Porthtowan, Alec Harley Reeves - inventor, Arthur Bowker - potter, de Rivaz genealogy, Nomad .. and more Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29632 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- End of CryoNet Digest *********************

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CryoNet #29635 - #29637

CryoNet - Thu 5 Jul 2007 #29636: Re: "The Future Aint What it Used to Be!" [RudiHoffman] #29637: Re: More on marketing [David Stodolsky] Rate This Digest: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29635%2D29637 Administrivia To subscribe to CryoNet, send email to: cryonet-request@xxxxxxxxxxx with the subject line (not message _body_): subscribe To unsubscribe, use the subject line: unsubscribe To post a message to CryoNet, send your message to: cryonet@xxxxxxxxxxx (Note: A "Subject:" line starting the message body replaces the "Subject:" line in the header. This gives a second opportunity to provide a meaningful subject line.) Since all CryoNet messages are archived and accessible via WWW, including search engines, make certain that your postings reflect how you want the world to see you. To retrieve past messages, send email to: archive@xxxxxxxxxxx with the message numbers in the subject line. (Message 0003 describes the advanced syntax.) You also can retrieve them via the CryoNet web page at URL: http://www.cryonet.org/ For administrative or other questions/suggestions, send email to me at "kqb@xxxxxxxxxxx" with "cryonics" in the subject line. - Kevin Q. Brown ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Message #29636 From: RudiHoffman@xxxxxxx Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2007 10:49:17 EDT Subject: Re: "The Future Aint What it Used to Be!" In a message dated 7/4/2007 4:01:17 A.M. Eastern Standard Time, owner-cryonet@xxxxxxxxxxx writes: Mark Plus wrote: The current issue has an article by Mordechai Ben-Ari titled, "The End of Science Revisited: The Case for Incrementalism in the Future of Science." I've scanned it, and you can download the Adobe file from this link: http://www.box.net/shared/ty7bxa0 (Rudi writing) While I don't always agree with Mark Plus, he has referenced a rather compelling article here. So, allow me to contribute a small piece to the thread of whiny "where's my jet car?" protests and related handwringing because the future is coming along way to goddam slow for many of us in the "technoutopian" class. Jesus...the above is a pretty great, if run on and too long, sentence! Seriously,while I am regretfully hyperaware of the "angst" many of us in cryonics have about slow breakthroughs, it is probably important for us to continue to take the long view and maintain a reasonable level of optimism. For those of us who pride ourselves on rationality and realistic assessments of reality, there may be a countervailing personal benefit to doing something that would have to be described as "keeping the faith." (No, this is not the kind of "Faith" that Sam Harris say's we need to end...I am not advocating believing anything without reasonable evidence.) But I do think we as human beings tend to be happier when we ARE able to focus on the multiple ways life is getting better. And, there is a great concept I have often referred to as the "USEFUL MYTH." (To my knowledge, this verbiage is original with me...but it probably is not. Nearly every time I think I have created an original or semi-profound idea, I later find that someone not only thought of it FIRST...they articulated and wrote it BETTER than I ever HAD or probably COULD! I remember how profoundly this affected me reading the early work in "Extropy" magazine, in which Max More's writing was seminal, crisp, and articulated ideas I thought were original with me. But he wrote them much more clearly. That is why I sell cryonics insurance and retirement plans and Max is a professional philosopher.) Most people have the "useful myth" of religion or superstition to help keep them in a reasonably good frame of mind. Those of us who for better or worse have had enough Anthropology and Science education who are now forced to deal with the harsh likelihood (reality?) that we exist in a Universe that does not give two figs for us NEED some kind of equivalent "Useful myth." And, for many of us fans of Kurzweil and Drexler, the "useful myth" has been that the whiz bang nanotech of the near term future will start making life a LOT better for everyone. (Never mind the pretty obvious fact that the "whiz bang" technology I am writing this on, a fast computer connected at broadband speeds to a astonishing world wide web, and it is a good tool...and yet it brings me huge amounts of frustration and annoyance. I spent most of my business day yesterday dealing with my fucker of a computer, trying to make it do what it is supposed to do. Never mind the jet pack...Where the hell is my "productivity dividend?") And now Mark Plus comes along and refers us to a well written, decently researched article that takes away at least part of the glitter on this "accelerating future." Well, Mark, and "Skeptic" magazine, as Stephen Colbert would say, "We don't care about your rational and scientific analysis! What do we FEEL about this?" And I FEEL...or at least I desperately WANT to feel... that life is INDEED getting better for most of us. And that the blessings of technology and prosperity will continue to expand our lives and capabilities, and make our future life experience something close to never ending bliss. Here endeth my particular faith, a faith I readily and rationally acknowledge may be a "Useful Myth." Happy 4th...celebrate Liberty. Rudi Rudi Richard Hoffman CFP CLU ChFC Board Member Financial Planning Association fpafla.org Board Member Salvation Army salvationarmy.org Member Alcor Life Extension Foundation alcor.org Certified Financial Planner(TM) CFP Board of Standards Member Libertarian Party libertarianparty.org Member National Rifle Association nra.org Member World Transhumanist Association http://transhumanism.org/ World's Leading Cryonics Insurance Provider rudihoffman.com ************************************** See what's free at http://www.aol.com. Content-Type: text/html; charset="US-ASCII" [ AUTOMATICALLY SKIPPING HTML ENCODING! ] Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29636 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Message #29637 References: <list-4560459@xxxxxxxxxxxx> From: David Stodolsky <david.stodolsky@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> Subject: Re: More on marketing Date: Wed, 4 Jul 2007 19:26:12 +0200 On 2 Jul 2007, at 12:37, John de Rivaz wrote: >> What I am talking about is [a church] servicing those not yet >> signed-up. >> Another >> difference is that it is a service to individuals, while the group >> aspect is inherent in the idea I am proposing. > > Most if not all "group orientated" people are content with the idea > of the > group surviving, and are not concerned with individuals within it. You are confusing two issues. I am not talking about individualism vs. collectivism. The point here is to benefit the individual by group action. This is exactly why cryonics organizations have been formed. > >> You are still thinking in individual terms. People are perfectly >> happy to part with 1/10 of their income to churches that promise them >> eternal life and provide a social environment that reinforces the >> approach. > > Really? Why is their such an "industry" of accountants and lawyers > around > avoiding taxes legally? A lot of the people who avoid taxes legally do so by making contributions to charitable (church) organizations. > >> There has to be a enough support to get a group going and self- >> financing. Once there is a model that works, it can be duplicated >> indefinitely. > > Clearly this has not happened for cryonics. And it will not, until a full service solution is offered. > > Yes, the economic advantages of offering cryopreservation for > elderly or > sick people with no chance of recovery and a poor quality of life > are clear. > However I cannot see it being acceptable ethically, however > illogical this > is. This is precisely why large numbers of members are needed. When politicians see that there is a sizeable group of highly organized voters for the cryo option, they will allow it. dss David Stodolsky davidstodolsky@xxxxxxx Skype: davidstodolsky Rate This Message: http://www.cryonet.org/cgi-bin/rate.cgi?msg=29637 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- End of CryoNet Digest *********************
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