Re: [KIB] : CIA Vision : Khilafah akan berdiri tahun 2020

riza aulia <rz_aulia-/E1597aS9LQAvxtiuMwx3w@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:CIA is a 
kind of 'optimitistic' that Chaliphate will be established soon, Insya Allah it 
will. The New Islamic Superpower will challenge the present dying superpower, 
USA.
Islam will rule and that will be the end of history....
 
 
  
CIA's 20:20 vision for the future Caliphate is short sighted  

By Abid Mustafa

Al-Jazeerah, January 24, 2005

Source : 

http://www.aljazeerah.info

 

In December 2004, The National Intelligence Council of the CIA predicted that 
in the year 2020 a new Caliphate would emerge on the world stage. The findings 
were published in a 123-page report titled ?Mapping the Global Future?. The aim 
of the report is to prepare the next Bush administration for challenges that 
lie ahead by projecting current trends that may pose a threat to US interest. 
The report is presented to the US president, members of Congress, cabinet 
members and key officials involved in policymaking. 

What is striking about the report is that it is full of references about 
political Islam and the various challenges it poses to US interests in the 
foreseeable future. There is even a fictional scenario depicting the emergence 
of Caliphate state in 2020 and its impact on the international situation. 

However, the report is predicated on assumptions which undermine the validity 
of the report in various parts, especially the section on the Caliphate. Below 
is a critique of some of the arguments postulated in the fictional scenario: - 

The report asserts that the strength of the new Caliphate will be borne out of 
the efforts of a global Islamic movement taking power. While it may be true 
that a global Islamic movement may instigate civil disobedience or initiate a 
coup to bring about the Caliphate, its strength and longevity is dependent upon 
something entirely different. 

Intellectual conviction in a common set of values amongst the citizens of a 
state is the measure of the state?s strength and not the movement, which 
founded the state. The Soviet Union collapsed not because it was deficient in 
technology, but because its people abandoned communism and the communist party 
was powerless to convince them otherwise. 

An accurate appraisal of the convictions of the Muslim masses for the 
resumption of the Islamic way of life through the re-establishment of the 
Caliphate is the single most important factor in determining whether the 
Caliphate will succeed or fail in the 21st century. This is more important than 
technology and resources. Both of which can be quickly gained as long as the 
Caliphate is able to defend itself and base its progress exclusively on the 
Islamic ideology. 

Whenever Islamic movements are taken as the sole gauge for estimating the 
extent of Islamic revival in Muslim countries a skewed picture will always 
emerge. The CIA is not alone in employing this false standard. The practice is 
wide spread and has tainted the analysis of respected think tanks and the 
writings of some notable commentators such as Francis Fukuyama and Samuel P. 
Huntington. 

This flaw is not the result of their malice towards Islam, but is due to their 
adherence to the philosophy of individualism, which has marred their 
understanding of society and reduced it to a collection of individuals. 

A proper understanding of society reveals that it is composed of individuals, 
which are bonded together by common thoughts and emotions, and live under a 
specific system. The degree of support amongst people towards the existing 
system of governance or for an alternative system of ruling can only be 
ascertained through the evaluation of these common thoughts and emotion. 

The attachment to individualism has led the west to grossly underestimate the 
penetration of Islamic thoughts and sentiments in the Muslim countries, and 
also to miscalculate the wide spread support for the re-establishment of the 
Caliphate. 

Another point of contention in the report is the claim that the emergence of 
the Caliphate will not cause the regimes in Muslim countries to collapse one 
after the other ? the domino effect. 

Again this understanding is derived from an incorrect understanding of society. 
A cursory study of the Muslim world shows that there exists strong polarisation 
in viewpoints between the regimes and the people they govern. Before the 
collapse of the baath regime, Saddam an atheist was delivering speeches laced 
with Islamic terms. He did this, because he reaslised that the people were no 
longer motivated by baathism, secularism or Arabism and only responded to 
Islam. Similarly, when Musharraf sided with America?s war against Afghanistan 
he had to quote lengthy passages from life of the messenger (saw) to justify 
his stance. 

The conflict between maintaining the secular order and preventing political 
Islam from assuming power is a daily occurrence in much of the Muslim world. 
The regimes in the Muslim world are viewed as the custodians of western 
interests and antagonistic towards Islam. Muslims simply loathed these regimes 
and are eager to extinguish their existence. The only reason these regime 
survive is because of the dogged support from western governments. 

Today, the Islamic ummah stands on the cusp of a monumental change, just as the 
Warsaw pact countries stood some 18 years ago. The iron curtain came down 
because people had changed their viewpoint from communism to capitalism. 
Likewise the Muslim ummah has abandoned both communism and capitalism, and is 
waiting for the emergence of the Caliphate, which will cause these regimes to 
collapse in spectacular fashion, only to be absorbed by the Caliphate. 

Finally the report claims that Muslims would find the temptations of western 
materialism too much to bear, causing them to flee the shores of the new 
Caliphate. This view is obviously founded on the prevalent western notion that 
the Caliphate is the antithesis to modernisation. Another factor that enhances 
this perception amongst westerners is the current exodus of Muslims from the 
Islamic world to the west. 

Nothing could be further from the truth. First, the Caliphate that Muslims want 
to establish is the rightly guided Caliphate, which was at the zenith of human 
civilisation. A historical fact widely recognised by several eminent experts on 
Islam- most notably Bernard Lewis. 

Second, the mass migration of Muslims to the west is a consequence of western 
foreign policy ventures in Muslim world and not because of Muslim infatuation 
with western values. Most migrants, if not all are either economic migrants or 
political asylum seekers escaping the tyranny of regimes often supported by 
western governments. 

Even those Muslims, who have settled in the west, have yet to embrace secular 
values for fear of corrupting their Islam. The recent endeavour by Europe to 
coerce its Muslim population to adopt western values speaks volumes for 
Europe?s obsession with secularising Muslims and runs counter to the 
stereotyped image projected by the western media that Muslims are pleading to 
be westernised. 

The typecasting of Muslims is based on the erroneous understanding of 
anti-western feeling that pervades the Muslim world. Often in western circles, 
anti-western sentiments are equated with the total rejection of western 
civilisation and attributed to the fundamentalist camp. 

To make matters worse, the desire amongst Muslims to own western goods are 
interpreted as a craving for the western way of life. Westerners often classify 
those who display admiration for western goods into the moderate camp. 

To pigeonhole Muslims into the two camps based on such interpretations is 
wrong. This is because the anti-western rhetoric found amongst Muslims is a 
denunciation of western culture and not of western goods. Likewise, the 
expression for the admiration for western products is an acknowledgement of the 
superior quality of the goods and is not an affirmation for the wholesale 
acceptance of western culture. 

For the first time in many years, the Muslim world has undergone a radical 
transformation in reconciling which aspects of the western way of life can be 
accepted or rejected with Islam. Muslims today accept western goods such as 
DVDs, Satellites Dishes, and TVs only because such items do not contradict 
their Islamic viewpoint. On the other hand western concepts such as freedom, 
democracy and individualism are discarded because are deemed to contradict 
Islam. 

Previously, the Muslim world was torn between two factions i.e. the modernists 
who wanted to adopt everything from the west and the traditionalists who were 
keen to rebuff all aspects of western civilisation. This mentality stifled 
progress and allowed the west to establish their hegemony over Muslim lands. 

Today, it is not Muslims who are holding themselves back from human advancement 
and meeting the demands of the 21st century, but rather it is the west that 
chooses to suppress these developments and insists on imposing its values upon 
the Muslim masses in connivance with the regimes of the Muslim world. 

This attitude has not only contributed to the west?s misunderstanding of Islam, 
but has encouraged the west to define an inequitable relationship with the 
Muslim world. Furthermore, the mindset has prompted the west to shun everything 
to do with Islam. West?s occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan has already 
highlighted the abuse of the Muslim people, the pillage of their land and 
denigration of Islam. 

If this attitude is not reversed then the west will find itself in a precarious 
position on two fronts. 

First, the Caliphate will be a strong, progressive state charting a new destiny 
for the Muslim people after liberating them from the political, military and 
economic hegemony of the west. The west weakened by this abrupt loss of control 
will struggle to maintain its dominance in world affairs. 

Secondly, the Caliphate will swiftly harness the synergy between Islam and 
science, thereby surpassing the west in terms of inventions, technologies and 
new scientific discoveries. Given the west?s negative attitudes towards all 
things Islamic, it will find itself closing the doors to knowledge and 
shielding its people from progress and challenges of 21st century. 

 Also click : http://www.cia.gov/nic/NIC_globaltrend2020_s3.html#scen



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