Observation: Will Washington go to war with Iran?

http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200501/25/eng20050125_171802.html

 Observation: Will Washington go to war with Iran?         

The sudden tension between US and Iran has again drawn world's attention 
recently -- will Iran become the next target of Washington? 

The news came out as New Yorker carried an article in its latest issue in which 
the author, a Pulitzer Prize winner, revealed that the Pentagon had sent a 
special force to Iran for collecting intelligence and locating the whereabouts 
of the potential nuclear sites. Then UK-based The Guardian run a report saying 
Pentagon hardliners were preparing to destroy Tehran's "nuclear threats". The 
US and Europe media hype reminds people of the public opinion preparation on 
the eve of the Iraqi war. 

Despite of that, a cool-headed analysis shows a rather slim chance of US attack 
on Iran. Firstly, the United States is still mired in Iraq, with its death toll 
(which already reached 1,570) increasing every day. Domestic anti-war cries 
have been surging as if apparently Pentagon would not be allowed to launch 
another war with a waster of both money and manpower. 

Second, Iran not only possesses a terrain more sophisticated than Iraq, but 
also is as four times as Iraq in size and population. Its political situation 
is fairly stable and its national strength, combat capability and cohesion 
among people are all far unmatched if compared with Iraq. All these weigh 
heavily on American mind. 

Third, once going to war with Iran, the US will see no allies following except 
Israel, and even Britain will not. Considering its large number of contacts 
signed with Iran, Russian will certainly oppose. 

Iran also boasts a better strategic position than Iraq. In case of war 
outbreak, it will seal off the Strait of Hormuz at any cost. It is from this 
strait that 40 percent of Gulf crude oil goes to every corner of the world, so 
once supply is blocked the impact on oil markets and global economy will be 
fatal. Considering this, even countries supporting the Iraqi war such as Japan 
and the ROK will not be in favor of a war on Iran. 

The European Union has still more reasons to adhere to "diplomatic approach". 
It leaves the impression that it has been playing a double-role play with the 
United States ¡ª the former offers the carrot while the latter holds up the 
stick. Such a tacit agreement between the two cannot be ruled out. But on the 
other hand, trying to insure its trade and oil interests with Iran, EU is 
certainly unwilling to see a war on Iran. 

People have noticed that the Pentagon denied New Yorker's report but didn't 
make a comment on The Guardian article. US Vice President Dick Cheney made it 
clear on the very day of his inauguration that the United State will continue 
to seek diplomatic means for the Iranian nuclear issue; but he added that Iran 
tops the Administration's list of "potentially troubled regions". Bush once 
also made remarks that diplomatic approach is the first to be considered but 
other choices are also possible. 

According to experts' assessment, it's still several years before Iran comes 
into possession of nuclear weapons, which leaves time for mediation and 
explaining Washington's patience. Of course, no military attacks at present 
doesn't mean no plans or preparations, and the possibility of US target bombing 
on Iranian nuclear facilities can never be ruled out. Iranian President 
Mohammad Khatami, on the one hand, warned the United States seriously, but on 
the other hand believed a war is of low possibility since Washington is weighed 
down by various considerations. It seems that the US is launching a 
psychological war to press obedience out of Iran through pressure and threats. 

This article is carried on the first page of the People's Daily (Overseas 
Edition), January 24 and translated by People's Daily Online 


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