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Fwd: [ENWL-eng] Earth Policy News: Katrina's Second Wave: Climate Refugees: msg#00221
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Fwd: [ENWL-eng] Earth Policy News: Katrina's Second Wave: Climate Refugees |
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----- Original Message ----- From: Earth
Policy News <Earthpolicynews@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> To:
<undisclosed-recipients:;> Sent: Saturday, August 26, 2006 3:11
AM Subject: [ENWL-eng] Earth Policy News: Katrina's Second Wave:
Climate Refugees
> > Eco-Economy Update 2006-7 >
For Immediate Release > August 16, 2006 > > GLOBAL WARMING
FORCING U.S. COASTAL POPULATION TO MOVE INLAND > An Estimated 250,000
Katrina Evacuees Are Now Climate Refugees > http://www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2006/Update57.htm > >
Lester R. Brown > > Those of us who track the effects of global
warming had assumed that the > first large flow of climate refugees would
likely be in the South Pacific > with the abandonment of Tuvalu or other
low-lying islands. We were wrong. > The first massive movement of climate
refugees has been that of people > away from the Gulf Coast of the United
States. > > Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall in late August
2005, forced a > million people from New Orleans and the small towns on
the Mississippi and > Louisiana coasts to move inland either within state
or to neighboring > states, such as Texas and Arkansas. Although nearly
all planned to return, > many have not. > > Unlike in previous
cases, when residents typically left areas threatened > by hurricanes and
returned when authorities declared it was safe to do so, > many of these
evacuees are finding new homes. In this respect, the U.S. > hurricane
season of 2005 was different. Record-high temperatures in the > Gulf of
Mexico surface waters helped make Hurricane Katrina the most > financially
destructive hurricane ever to make landfall anywhere. > > In some
Mississippi Gulf Coast towns, Katrina's powerful 28-foot-high > storm
surge (8.5 meters) did not leave a single structure standing. There > was
nothing for evacuees to return to. The destruction of housing and >
infrastructure in St. Bernard Parish, a low-lying 40-mile-long peninsula >
(64 kilometers) extending southeast from New Orleans, rendered most of
it > uninhabitable. The Katrina storm surge that raised the water level in
Lake > Pontchartrain so high that it breached the levees and flooded New
Orleans > left much of the city unfit to live in. Even today, a year
later, large > parts of the city are without basic infrastructure services
such as water, > power, sewage disposal, garbage collection, and
telecommunications. > Interestingly, the country to suffer the most damage
from a hurricane is > also primarily responsible for global
warming. > > Many evacuees were able to return in a matter of days,
but many more were > not. New Orleans' population before Katrina struck
was 463,000. Claritas, > a private demographic data-gathering and analysis
firm, reported that > after the hurricane New Orleans' population shrank
to 93,000. By January > 2006, it had recovered to 174,000. By July 2006,
the city still had only > 214,000 residents, less than half of its
pre-Katrina population. > > Three Louisiana coastal parishes
(counties) also registered substantial > population declines. The
population of St. Bernard Parish plummeted from > 66,000 residents to
15,000 in July 2006. South of New Orleans, the > population of Plaquemines
Parish declined from 29,000 to 20,000. Densely > populated Jefferson
Parish, also bordering New Orleans on the south, > dropped from 453,000 to
411,000, a loss of 42,000. > > Mississippi's three coastal counties
each lost population. The July > tabulation showed Hancock County had lost
8,000 residents. Harrison > County, which includes the town of Gulfport,
lost 12,000, and Jackson > County 4,000. (See data at > www.earthpolicy.org/Updates/2006/Update57_data.htm.) > >
As of July 2006, New Orleans, the three parishes, and the three counties >
in Mississippi had lost a total of 375,000 residents because of >
destruction from Katrina. Some evacuees are still returning, but the
flow > has slowed to a near trickle. We estimate that at least 250,000 of
them > have established homes elsewhere and will not return. They no
longer want > to face the personal trauma and financial risks associated
with rising > seas and more destructive storms. These evacuees are now
climate refugees. > > While the July numbers tell us how many people
have not returned home, > they do not capture the personal trauma of
exposure to a disaster that > claimed 1,300 lives or the sense of loss
from being abruptly uprooted from > home and community, and separated from
schools, jobs, and friends. > Assessing Katrina's effects, the American
Psychological Association notes > that many of the storm's victims
experience post-traumatic stress > disorder. This manifestation of extreme
stress is similar to that of > troops returning from Iraq. > >
Hanging over the future of the hurricane-prone coastal regions of the
U.S. > southeast is the difficulty in getting property insurance. In the
wake of > the last two hurricane seasons, including the 2004 season when
four > hurricanes crossed Florida, reconstruction is still ongoing,
insurance > costs are climbing, and private insurance companies are
withdrawing from > high-risk coastal areas. > > The movement
of insurers out of high-risk regions started after Hurricane > Andrew hit
Florida in 1992, destroying 60,000 homes and bankrupting some > 11 local
insurance companies. In response, governments in hurricane-prone > states,
including Florida, Mississippi, and Louisiana, each created a >
state-supported insurance company for homeowners unable to get private >
insurance. Florida's state insurer, Citizens Property Insurance >
Corporation, ran a deficit of $516 million in 2004. An analysis of risks >
and costs in late 2005 showed that premiums charged to property owners >
must be raised 80 percent to ensure Citizens' future viability. > >
These deficits were repeated in Louisiana and at the national level with >
the National Flood Insurance Program, which ran a $23 billion deficit in >
2005. The bottom line is that rates must rise as the risk rises. This >
applies not only to property insurance, but also for firms seeking to >
insure against business interruption losses. > > After a point as
storm risks multiply and insurance rates rise, real > estate prices start
to decline. To cite an extreme example, how much is a > building lot worth
in St. Bernard Parish, now largely abandoned, or in the > low-lying parts
of New Orleans? Some of the businesses in these hard-hit > areas that are
not tied directly to local customers, such as consulting > firms, software
companies, or publishing houses, have moved to more secure > locations.
New Orleans entrepreneur, Ken Murray, who founded Parker, > Murray and
Associates, a sales and marketing company, is among those who > have moved
their firms to Dallas. > > Katrina took a heavy toll in the
Louisiana and Mississippi coastal > regions, but there are 35 million
people living along the hurricane-prone > coast that stretches from North
Carolina to Texas. Half of these live in > Florida: 10 million on the
Atlantic coast and 7 million on the Gulf coast. > > As rising seas
and more powerful hurricanes translate into higher > insurance costs in
these coastal communities, people are retreating > inland. And just as
companies migrate to regions with lower wages, they > also migrate to
regions with lower insurance costs. > > The experience with more
destructive storms in recent years is only the > beginning. Since 1970,
the Earth's average temperature has risen by one > degree Fahrenheit, but
by 2100 it could rise by up to 10 degrees > Fahrenheit (6 degrees
Celsius). > > More destructive storms are an early manifestation of
global warming. The > longer term risk is that rising temperatures will
melt glaciers and polar > ice caps, raising sea level and displacing
coastal residents worldwide. > The flow of climate refugees to date
numbers in the thousands, but if we > do not quickly reduce CO2 emissions,
it could one day number in the > millions. > >
# # # > > Additional data and
information sources at www.earthpolicy.org or contact >
jlarsen (at) earthpolicy.org > > For reprint permission contact rjk
(at) earthpolicy.org > > For a plan to cut CO2 emissions see Chapter
10 in Plan B 2.0 at > www.earthpolicy.org/Books/PB2/PB2ch10_ss7.htm > > > > >
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DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER
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CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic
screeds are unwelcomed. Substanceâ??not soap-boxingâ??please! These are
sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'â??with its many half-truths, mis-
directions and outright fraudsâ??is used politically by different groups with
major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought.
That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and
always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no
credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply.
Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector.
========================================================================
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